Nouriel Roubini

Advanced economies will suffer a hard landing (a deep, protracted recession) together with a severe financial crisis (inferred window about two years, to end-2024).

“That means there will be a hard landing - a deep, protracted recession - on top of a severe financial crisis.”

Said on

5 December 2022 · Project Syndicate column on the "mother of all stagflationary debt crises", republished by The Asset on 5 Dec 2022 (PS original late 2022)

Source

Global crash can be postponed, not avoided · The Asset / Project Syndicate

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

there will be

Categories

EconomyMarketsBanking

Importance

4 of 5 · A deep recession plus financial crisis across advanced economies would be a major global shock.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Inferred window about two years (to end-2024). The US had no recession (NBER dated no peak after Feb 2020; GDP grew about 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024), and the March 2023 regional bank failures were contained rather than a severe financial crisis. The eurozone only stagnated, not a deep protracted recession.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product