Nouriel Roubini

In 2026 the US will have a few months of below-trend growth, then a recovery, with inflation gradually falling toward 2%.

“In the baseline case, the US will suffer a growth recession (meaning below-trend GDP growth) for a few months, followed by a recovery and a gradual decline in the inflation rate toward the US Federal Reserve's 2% target.”

Said on

26 November 2025 · Project Syndicate column "The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026", excerpted by NYU Stern; he calls this Goldilocks scenario the baseline among three

Source

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026 · NYU Stern / Project Syndicate

Should come true

2026

How sure they sounded

In the baseline case ... will

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · US growth and inflation outlook for a year matters to markets and policy.

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