Gary Marcus

No "mindblowing" GPT-5-class leap in language models will be released in 2024.

“But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”

Said on

31 March 2024 · Substack post on when the generative-AI bubble might burst

Source

When Will the GenAI Bubble Burst? · Marcus on AI (Substack)

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

"I doubt it"

Categories

AITechnology

Importance

3 of 5 · The pace of frontier-model progress matters to the whole AI industry.

Outcome

Partly right

No GPT-5 or similar across-the-board leap shipped in 2024, as he expected. But OpenAI's o1 (September 2024) was a large jump in math, coding and science reasoning that many observers called a major advance. Scored partial, not accurate, because of o1.

Evidence:

• https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
• https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/CJ4sppkGcbnGMSG2r/2024-in-a=