Global temperatures will temporarily exceed 2°C above preindustrial levels during the peak of the 2026-27 El Niño (by end of 2027).

Pending ●●●●●

“I think it is very likely that we’re going to temporarily cross the two degree line during the hottest phase of the now-developing El Niño”

Said on: 7 September 2026 · The Crucial Years newsletter, "Facts on the ground"
Source: Facts on the ground · The Crucial Years (Substack)
Should come true: 2027
How sure they sounded: I think it is very likely
Categories: Climate
Importance: 4 of 5 · Crossing the Paris Agreement's upper limit, even temporarily, is a major global milestone

Outcome

Not scored yet.

History