A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“The Fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years”Economy
“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”Economy
“I would imagine, given the size of our country and the diversity of vaccination versus not vaccination, that it likely will be more than a couple of weeks, probably by the end of January, I would think”Health
“if you have just a couple of percentages of the isolates being Omicron, very soon, it's going to be the dominant variant.”Health
“We certainly are not going to eradicate it,”Health
“And I think this stuff will work itself out over the course of next year.”Economy
“Sometime during the second half of the year we'll see inflation rates moving back toward the 2% that we regard as normal.”Economy
“I expect that next year, many of the supply bottlenecks that we're experiencing now in opening up our economy will recede”Economy
“Well, I expect that to happen next year.”Economy
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
“So you put all those together, I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer and going into--going into the fall.”Economy
“I expect it to last, however, for several more months and to see high annual rates of inflation through the end of this year”Economy
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
“In an episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not the same thing as, and is not likely to lead to, persistently higher year-over-year inflation into the future”Economy
“If you project realistically, when we will be able to get enough data to be able to say that elementary school children will be able to be vaccinated, I would think that would be, at the earliest, the end of the year, and very likely the first quarter of 2022,”Health
“by the time we get to April, that will be what I would call for better wording 'open season,' namely that virtually everybody and anybody, in any category, could start to get vaccinated”Health
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
“my expectation--and I think many people have the expectation that the second half of next year should--the economy should be performing strongly.”EconomyHealth
“We will know whether a vaccine is safe and effective by the end of November, the beginning of December.”Health
“But by the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccine and get a majority or more of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen until the end of 2021,”Health
“We feel cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021.”Health
“I still think there is a reasonably good chance that by the very beginning of 2021, if we're going to have a vaccine, that we will have it by then,”Health
“what's going to happen, in all likelihood, is that you're going to see the second quarter drop a lot, and the third quarter skyrocket”EconomyHealth
“the idea of having treatments available or a vaccine to facilitate the reentry of students into the fall term would be something that would be a bit of a bridge too far”Health
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
“we will have coronavirus in the Fall. I am convinced of that because of the degree of transmissibility that has the global nature.”Health
“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases. But I don't want to be held to that, because it's -- excuse me -- deaths.”Health
“I can say we will see more cases, and things will get worse than they are right now,”Health