Right, but late ●●●●●
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will soon lose power (inferred window: about two years, to early 2014).
“it is our estimation that (Assad’s) days are numbered. It’s a matter not of if but when.”Geopolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Democrats will keep their majority in the US House in the November 2010 midterm elections.
“One thing I know for sure is that Democrats will retain their majority in the House of Representatives”ElectionsPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The North polar ice cap may well be completely gone (ice-free) by the end of 2013.
“the entire North polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices (then near record highs in July 2008) will keep rising over the next couple of years unless the world shifts away from oil.
“the demand for oil is growing so rapidly that the price is almost certainly going to continue to go up until we shift away from a dependence on oil and coal and towards renewable energy.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The 2007 US troop surge in Iraq will not reduce sectarian violence and will instead make it worse.
“I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there. In fact, I think it will do the reverse.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Hillary Clinton will win her November 2006 New York Senate re-election by a large margin.
“I don't want to jinx her, but she's going to win overwhelmingly.”Elections
Pending ●●●●●
Atmospheric CO2 will reach the projected level he pointed to on his chart (about 500 ppm) by 2056.
“Within less than 50 years, it will be here,”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Glacier National Park will have lost its glaciers by about 2021.
“Within 15 years this will be the park formerly known as Glacier”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Mount Kilimanjaro's snow and ice will be gone by the end of 2016.
“Within the decade, there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
A US invasion of Iraq, even if militarily successful, will require a lengthy and costly US occupation and will strengthen al-Qaida recruitment.
“I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames…”Geopolitics