Inaccurate ●●●●●
The dot-com tech-stock boom of early 2000 was very far from ending (said Feb 29, 2000).
“And we will keep doing so until this period is over – and it is very far from ending”MarketsTechnology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Yardeni put a 70% probability on a Y2K-triggered worldwide recession starting in January 2000, lasting about 12 months and as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.
“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will grow at moderately strong rates continuously from late 1997 into 2002.
“The economy will start to grow at moderately strong rates from late 1997 into 2002.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After large deficits into 1992, the US federal budget will be balanced or in surplus by 1998-2000.
“will likely be in a balanced budget or surplus by 1998 to 2000.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will not suffer a Great Depression during the 1990s.
“There will most emphatically not be a Great Depression of the 1990s.”Economy