A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“Now the most interesting question is whether October or December brings the next increase. My expectation is December.”BankingEconomy
“Combined with continued credit expansion, a strong labor market and higher market interest rates, I believe the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this week’s meeting.”BankingEconomy
“We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”Markets
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,”Markets
“So I think stocks are now on the process to go back to their all-time highs.”Markets
“As the Fed moves toward easing—something I still expect to total roughly 200 basis points from the peak rates over 5%—the relief will be felt most acutely by small and mid-sized firms that borrow short.”BankingEconomy
“As a result, the inflation outlook looks quite good for 2026. We would be between 2% and 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed target.”Economy
“We expect that S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share will increase from $268 this year to $310 next year,”Markets
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,”Crypto
“We are still targeting 7700 by the end of next year.”Markets
“For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000,”Crypto
“This is why we're sticking with our S&P 500 targets — 6,600 by the end of 2025 and 7,700 by the end of next year.”Markets
“By the second half of this year, we expect the bull market to resume.”Markets
“We are targeting (not promising) a gold price of $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of 2026.”Markets
“We remain bullish, targeting 7000 on the S&P 500 by the end of next year.”Markets
“We are the head of the pack on the outlook for S&P 500 operating earnings per share next year at $285, up 18.8% y/y”Markets
“I'm still confident bitcoin is going to close much higher before year-end — well above $100,000 before year-end”Crypto
“Bitcoin, I see going up to $800,000 to $1 million by 2037 to ’40.”CryptoMarkets
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics
“We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade.”Markets
“We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400.”Markets
“I think Bitcoin makes a beeline back towards its long-term trend line, which is probably $82,000 in the near term, $150,000 before year-end,”CryptoMarkets
“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.”Markets
“Broadly speaking, I actually agree with Savita Subramanian at Bank of America that we could go to 5000 on the S&P”Markets
“I can't go out with bitcoin [BTC] because I can't be in something where Mr. Bitcoin is about to go down big”CryptoMarkets
“I'm pretty confident that we're going to have a nice rally into year end, much higher from where we are now,”Markets
“we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and an accompanying decline in stock prices”EconomyMarkets
“We see the bull market that started on October 12, 2022, continuing through at least the end of next year with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high somewhere between 4,800 and 5,400 over the next 18 months”Markets
“I think instead of a recession unfolding, the economy is actually slipping into an expansion,”Economy
“I feel like the ultimate low at this point for stocks is likely to be… July or so of 2024,”Markets