Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Partly right ●●●●●
All hostages held in Gaza will be released very soon (within days) after Israel and Hamas agreed to phase one of the peace plan on October 8, 2025.
“means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon”Geopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The April 2025 tariffs will bring a large return of manufacturing jobs and factories to the United States.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The United States will acquire Greenland (gain sovereignty or control of it) by the end of Trump's second term in January 2029.
“One way or the other, we're going to get it”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Kamala Harris will win the November 2024 US presidential election.
“So I think she will win too.”ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Democrats will win control of the US House in the November 2024 elections and Hakeem Jeffries will become Speaker.
“And I do believe that we will win the House, that Hakeem will be speaker.”ElectionsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Pennsylvania in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“Just 27 days from now, we are going to win Pennsylvania, we are going to defeat Lying Kamala Harris.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win New York State in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“we are going to win New York.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US gasoline prices will fall below $2 a gallon.
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US grocery and consumer prices will fall soon after Trump takes office in January 2025 (by the end of 2025).
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
An Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza will be in place by Monday, March 4, 2024.
“And my hope is by next Monday, we'll have a ceasefire.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Russia-Ukraine war will be settled before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025.
“I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled before I even take office.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The White House and congressional Republicans will reach a budget/debt-limit agreement and the US will not default on its debt in 2023.
“I'm confident that we'll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default”EconomyPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
Russia will not win its war in Ukraine.
“And Ukraine — Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
China will not attempt to invade Taiwan in the near term (about two years after November 2022).
“And I do not think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Democrats will keep control of the US Senate in the November 8, 2022 midterm elections.
“I think we'll win the Senate, and I think the House is tougher.”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
Vladimir Putin will not use a tactical nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine.
“Well, I don't think he will. But I think it's irresponsible of him to talk about it”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will not enter a recession following late 2022 (or, if it does, the recession will be very mild).
“I don't think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a very slight recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Democrats will keep control of the US House in the November 2022 midterms and gain seats.
“We will hold the House by winning more seats.”ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Because of Western sanctions, Russia's economy will shrink by about half in the coming years.
“The economy is on track to be cut in half in the coming years.”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Russian forces will attack Ukraine within the week after February 18, 2022, targeting the capital Kyiv.
“we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Vladimir Putin will send Russian forces into Ukraine.
“My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation (6.8% in November 2021) is at its peak and will come down sooner than most people expect, i.e. during the first half of 2022.
“peak of the crisis, and I think you'll see it change sooner than—quicker than—more rapidly than it will take than most people think.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
If Donald Trump runs for president again (2024), he will be defeated.
“If he wants to run again, he’ll be the first president who was impeached twice and defeated twice.”ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Most of the US price increases seen in mid-2021 will prove temporary rather than becoming sustained inflation.
“Our experts believe and the data shows that most of the price increases we've seen are—were expected and expected to be temporary.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
There will be no Saigon-style helicopter evacuation of people from the US Embassy in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.
“There's going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a Embassy in the—of the United States from Afghanistan.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After the US troop withdrawal, the Taliban will not overrun and take control of all of Afghanistan.
“But the likelihood there's going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Michigan in the November 3, 2020 presidential election.
“Two days from now, we are going to win the State of Michigan again”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
Joe Biden will win the November 3, 2020 US presidential election.
“I feel very confident that Joe Biden will be elected president on Tuesday”ElectionsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will face a severe COVID-19 winter in 2020-21, with the pandemic worsening.
“We're about to go into a dark winter, a dark winter”Health