A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“we'll have at least five or six countries coming along very quickly”Geopolitics
“We are delivering lifesaving therapies and will produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner.”Health
“Double-digits. I won't go further than that.”ElectionsPolitics
“We're signing a health care plan within two weeks”HealthPolitics
“And I think we're going to be successful in doing it, and hopefully by the end of the year.”Health
“The minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we'll be substantially under that number”Health
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
“You will see an epiphany occur among many of my Republican friends.”Politics
“We're going to have over 400 miles of wall built, much of it is already started, by the end of next year”Politics
“We will win. I will run for speaker. I feel confident about it. And my members do, too.”ElectionsPolitics
“And there is a high risk that over the next 12 years, between now and 2030, the numbers of climate refugees will increase significantly.”ClimateGeopolitics
“Solar electricity, wind electricity, batteries in electric vehicles and soon electricity from renewable sources are going to be cheaper all over the world than fossil fuels.”EnergyClimate
“The country as a whole is going to meet the commitments of the Paris agreement, regardless of what Donald Trump says or does.”ClimatePolitics
“North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!”Geopolitics
“It will take a little time, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t eventually shift to a popular vote for President over the next decade or so.”PoliticsElections
“No way, ain’t gonna happen”ElectionsPolitics
“But we're bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent.”Economy
“You will see a drop like you've never seen before.”Economy
“some of those jobs of the past are just not going to come back”EconomyPolitics
“We're going to put the miners back to work.”EnergyEconomy
“Mexico, as sure as you're standing here, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.”PoliticsGeopolitics
“That will likely link up with the European Union.”ClimateMarketsGeopolitics
“I continue to believe Mr. Trump will not be President.”ElectionsPolitics
“an attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire. And it won’t work.”Geopolitics
“There may and likely will come a time in which we have both an airborne disease that is deadly.”Health
“The reality is that this epidemic is going to get worse before it gets better.”Health
“our experts, here at the CDC and across our government, agree that the chances of an Ebola outbreak here in the United States are extremely low.”Health
“By 2020 – as the scale of deployments grows and the costs continue to decline – more than 80 percent of the world’s people will live in regions where solar will be competitive with electricity from other sources.”EnergyClimate
“If Secretary Clinton were to run — and we think if she ran, she would win”ElectionsPolitics