Accurate ●●●●●
The US Treasury yield curve will invert in 2019, without signalling a recession.
“The yield curve will invert, and one of the reasons is inflation is going to be much lower than expected”MarketsEconomy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US economic growth in 2019 will beat expectations (surprise on the high side).
“The economy is going to surprise on the high side next year”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will become the world's and the internet's single currency within about ten years (by 2028).
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $4,000 per share (pre-2020-split price; $800 after the 2020 5-for-1 split, about $267 after the 2022 3-for-1 split).
“If we're right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin's major low in 2018 will be about $9,000 (it will not fall meaningfully below that level during 2018).
“We expect bitcoin's major low to be $9,000, and we would be aggressive buyers around that level,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon be effectively shut down or marginalized, suffering the same fate as online gambling.
“#Bitcoin days are numbered. It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling.”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
Research in Motion (BlackBerry) will become worthless as app-phone makers take over the smartphone market.
“RIM [Blackberry maker Research in Motion] is going to zero,”TechnologyMarkets