Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,900/oz) will fall to $900-$1,000 an ounce by mid-2024.
“I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000.”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $23,000) will fall to $3,250 before starting a longer-term boom.
“I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom,”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
US stocks will deliver strong gains in calendar year 2023.
“I think 2023 is going to be a very good year for equities.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting the federal funds rate by mid-2023 (June 30, 2023).
“I think the Fed will start bringing down the funds rate by mid-year 2023.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points (not 75) at its December 2022 meeting.
“I do expect the 50 basis points”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2023 the US will avoid an economy-wide recession (seeing only a rolling, sector-by-sector one), and the stock bear market will not continue.
“We're more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will do much better over the four weeks after November 18, 2022 (to about December 16, 2022).
“You've got to adjust your mindset to a world where the bears are finally in retreat, because I'm betting the next four weeks will be much better than what we've come to be used to”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's June 2022 low (3,666.77 close on June 16) will hold as the bear-market bottom, with no lower close afterward.
“I'm betting the market will bend, not break, through a rough September, and when we get through that period, that June low will hold.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The June 2022 low was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and the Fed would pivot away from tightening within about two months (by end of September 2022).
“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will fall to about $12,000 (from roughly $20,000 in June 2022).
“I think it goes to $12,000, where it was before this whole fiasco began.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Amazon, Meta and Alphabet shares had bottomed as of May 31, 2022 and were ready to rally rather than fall further.
“they’ve fallen so darn far that I think they’ve become metaphors for a whole host of stocks that are now ready to rally because they’ve got nowhere else to go but up”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will soon fall into a recession, with no Fed soft landing (inferred window about two years, to May 2024).
“We're about to go into a recession already… There's no soft landing here.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The S&P 500's January 2022 high was the top, and stocks will stay in a bear market below it until 2024.
“I think the market has already topped, January 4th for the S&P 500, and we're heading down,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's 2022 low was already set by the end of Q1 2022 (no lower close later in 2022).
“And with 1Q2022 behind us, we now assign a > 88% probability that the bottom for 2022 is in.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2022 above its March 9, 2022 close of about 4,278.
“Do I think stocks will end higher from here on an absolute basis? Yes.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US 'superbubble' will deflate all the way back to trend, taking the S&P 500 down to about 2500 (time-adjusted) from nearly 4700, within about two years of January 2022.
“the higher you go, the longer and greater the pain you will have to endure to get back to trend – in the current case to a trend value of about 2500 on the S&P 500, adjusted for the passage of time, from whatever high point the market might reach (currently at nearly 4700).”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will be flat or down in the first half of 2022.
“I think it's easily flat or down in the first half.”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,000 by the end of 2022.
“But 5,000 is actually a fairly conservative outlook. It's the end of next year,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumer prices will rise about 20% cumulatively over the three to four years from May 2021 (by May 2025).
“I believe in the next three, four years cumulatively we're going to have 20% inflation”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The US stock market bubble of 2020 will burst within about two years (by early 2023), with damaging effects on the economy and portfolios.
“But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will suffer a roughly 10% pullback in the first half of 2021, starting in February, March or April.
“I think we have a 10% kind of pullback, and I think that's a pause that refreshes,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's low of the September 2020 pullback will come before the November 3, 2020 US election, not after it.
“But as scary as this period is going to be, and I think stocks might be vulnerable, I think it's very likely stocks will make their lows before election day,”MarketsElections
Accurate ●●●●●
A fall 2020 Covid spike will cause at most a small pause in stocks, with no serious correction and no return toward the March 2020 lows.
“It's not going to be a serious correction, not anywhere again down near those March lows. A little pause if we get that wave, but I don't think it's going to really stop the longer-term momentum upward”MarketsHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will set a new record high before the end of 2020, barring a serious second Covid wave.
“In fact, given no serious second wave, which could mean just effective therapeutics without even a universal vaccine, my feeling is it's even a likelihood that we will reach”MarketsHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The U.S. stock market will have a bad second quarter of 2020 (April-June), following its awful first quarter.
“Just like the first quarter, I'm betting the second quarter will be bad — maybe not as bad as it could be, though”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
US economic and unemployment data for March-May 2020 will be terrible, followed by a strong rebound in consumer spending once people feel safe going out again.
“We're going to have some terrible, terrible economic numbers, unemployment numbers right up ahead here for March and April and May … And I think once we perceive that it's safe to go out again I think you're going to see a tremendous amount of spending in the economy”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 3,100 during 2019.
“It's still going to get to 3,100 [this year], it's just going to take a little while longer,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates once more in December 2018 and then pause, instead of the three 2019 hikes it projected.
“It's going to be one and done in December. That's what I'm saying is happening”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin's major low in 2018 will be about $9,000 (it will not fall meaningfully below that level during 2018).
“We expect bitcoin's major low to be $9,000, and we would be aggressive buyers around that level,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow will fall to 5,000-5,500 by October 2020.
“We have been bubbling since 2009 – I am projecting that the Dow will go down to 5,000 – 5,500 in the next two to three years”Markets