Right, but late ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 20,000 during 2016.
“I definitely think we will see Dow 20,000 in 2016”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Right, but late ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 2015 meeting.
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise above 18,000 within six to seven weeks of November 11, 2014 (by about December 30, 2014).
“I believe the next six or seven weeks are going to take us beyond 18,000 on the Dow”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After topping near 17,000, the Dow will fall to about 5,800 within a few years of August 2014 (by end of 2017).
“the Dow is going to go to about 17,000 and then a few years from now it is going to test the bottom at about 5,800.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US stocks will suffer a crash larger than 2008-09, with the Dow falling to around 6,000 by the end of 2016.
“I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's property bubble will soon burst, wiping out rich Chinese savings so they stop bidding up Australian and other foreign real estate (inferred window about two years, to early 2016).
“I think the rich Chinese have all their money in real estate, both at home and abroad, and they are going to get hosed so bad their savings will dissipate and they are not going to be running around bidding up real estate in Australia or anywhere else.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Johnson & Johnson will sell or spin off its diagnostics business during 2014.
“I bet CEO Alex Gorsky will shed JNJ's slow-growing diagnostics business this year and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 by the end of 2013.
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
US oil and gas reserves and output will prove unexpectedly resilient over the following decade thanks to fracking and horizontal drilling.
“Its substantial oil and gas reserves look likely to prove unexpectedly resilient, buoyed by improving skills at fracking and lateral drilling.”Energy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Over roughly the next decade from 2011, raw material prices will keep rising and resource shortages will be common.
“we now live in a different, more constrained, world in which prices of raw materials will rise and shortages will be common.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will not set a new inflation-adjusted high (above its 2000 peak) for decades after 2009.
“To be honest, I believe that most of you readers are likely to be grandparents before you see a new inflation-adjusted high on the S&P.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will rally to about 1000-1100 before the end of 2009.
“My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Global stimulus will revive the economies of large countries including the US and China by late 2009 or early 2010.
“The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80 percent probable to me, anyway.)”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Developed-world real GDP growth will average only about 2% (perhaps 2.25%) a year over the seven years to 2016.
“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2 percent real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25 percent) down from the 3.5 percent to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
The U.S. housing market will bottom and turn around on June 30, 2009.
“In fact, I’ll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround. It will begin on June 30, 2009.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will not fall back to their July 15, 2008 lows (said July 30, 2008).
“The market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Bear Stearns rescue in March 2008 marked the bottom of the U.S. stock market's decline, with no lower lows to follow.
“That $30 billion from the Fed will turn out to be a small price to pay for a bottom in the stock market after the beating we’ve taken over the past eight months.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bear Stearns was not in trouble and would not fail (said March 11, 2008).
“Bear Stearns is not in trouble. It's more likely to be taken over.”BankingMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Goldman Sachs stock will finish 2008 at $300 a share.
“Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Google stock will reach $1,000 a share during 2008.
“Google stock reaches $1,000.”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will rally in the last trading sessions of 2007 (after Dec 21, 2007) through year-end.
“I think we're in for a real ramp up”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US stock market will post a gain for calendar year 2008.
“I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.
“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized rate in the second half of 2002.
“We’re on the road to 3% to 4% growth in the second half of this year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 made its bear-market low in July 2002 and will not fall below it afterward.
“But it’s my belief that the S&P has probably hit a low.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will go through a deflationary, 1930s-style depression from 2010 to 2023.
“From 2010 to 2023 we will see a depressionary, deflationary downturn that will look and feel like the 30s.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
A new US stock bull market will begin by late 2002, after the 2000-2001 bear market.
“By late 2002, we'll see a new bull market.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 35,000 by the end of 2009.
“we are still predicting the Dow at 35,000 in late 2008 or 2009.”Markets