A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices.”Technology
“The cybernetic chauffeur, installed in one's car, communicates with other cars and sensors on the roads. In this way it successfully drives and navigates from one point to another.”Self-drivingAI
“Exoskeletal robotic prosthetic aids enable paraplegic persons to walk and climb stairs.”HealthTechnology
“The world chess champion is a computer.”AI