Accurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will rise over the 12 months after November 2023 as spot-ETF demand grows and the April 2024 halving cuts new supply.
“The price is going to adjust up,”Crypto
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will rally into the end of 2023 and finish the year much higher than its October 3, 2023 close of about 4,229.
“I'm pretty confident that we're going to have a nice rally into year end, much higher from where we are now,”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Regulation will shrink the crypto industry to bitcoin plus only six to twelve other proof-of-work tokens, with other tokens squeezed out (bitcoin dominance near 80%).
“So, the entire industry is kind of destined to be rationalized down to a Bitcoin-focussed industry with half a dozen to a dozen other proof-of-work tokens.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid the widely forecast 2023 recession and move into an expansion instead.
“I think instead of a recession unfolding, the economy is actually slipping into an expansion,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will beat Trump and DeSantis and win the 2024 US presidential election.
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
Global robotaxi services will generate $8-10 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
“We think that the robotaxi opportunity, globally, will deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030”Self-drivingAIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade above $500,000 by 2030 (ARK base case).
“in fact, we are a little higher than that in our base case for the year 2030, and in our bull case, much higher.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
AI chatbots' coding ability will keep improving quickly and their coding bugs will be ironed out over the following couple of years.
“AI is improving quickly and I expect it to keep improving further and ironing out bugs like this over time.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Crypto prediction markets will grow steadily but will not have extreme multibillion-dollar breakout moments.
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
Unresolvable ●●●●●
US broad-based inflation will turn negative (deflation) during 2023.
“We would not be surprised to see broad-based inflation turn negative in 2023”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach gold's market value, about $500,000 per coin, by the end of 2029.
“if Bitcoin goes to the value of gold, it’s going to $500,000 a coin, and I think that happens this decade,”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation readings will come in well below expectations (major downside surprises) between September 2022 and March 2023.
“So we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Within about five years (by September 2027), major cryptocurrencies will become only about as volatile as gold or the stock market.
“I definitely think that in the medium-term future cryptocurrencies will settle down and be only about as volatile as gold or the stock market.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The June 2022 low was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and the Fed would pivot away from tightening within about two months (by end of September 2022).
“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot”MarketsBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
Many more applications using ZK-SNARKs (zero-knowledge proofs) will be built in the few years after mid-2022.
“I expect to see many more applications using ZK-SNARKs, and eventually applications combining ZK-SNARKs with other forms of cryptography, to be built in the years to come.”TechnologyCrypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's 2022 low was already set by the end of Q1 2022 (no lower close later in 2022).
“And with 1Q2022 behind us, we now assign a > 88% probability that the bottom for 2022 is in.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2022 above its March 9, 2022 close of about 4,278.
“Do I think stocks will end higher from here on an absolute basis? Yes.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will replace the US dollar.
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will be flat or down in the first half of 2022.
“I think it's easily flat or down in the first half.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2022, price deflation rather than inflation will be the bigger surprise to markets.
“my conviction is growing that the bigger surprise to the markets will be price deflation – both cyclical and secular”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin ("digital gold") will overtake gold as the leading store-of-value asset (exceed gold's market value) by the end of 2029.
“It's pretty clear, digital gold is going to replace gold this decade.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US goods prices will start falling (inflation will unwind) soon after the 2021 holiday season, in early 2022.
“As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hyperinflation is imminent and will soon hit the United States and then the rest of the world.
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Electric vehicle sticker prices will fall below those of gasoline cars by about late 2022.
“We think based on the declining costs of battery pack systems that electric vehicle prices will drop below gas powered prices in a year or so.”TechnologyEnergy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Global annual electric vehicle sales will grow from 2.2 million (2020) to 40 million in 2025.
“So we think that 2.2 million will be 40 million in five years – in 2025.”TechnologyEnergy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will soon follow lumber and copper lower (falling from mid-2021 levels by the end of 2021).
“We believe oil prices will not be far behind, despite the significant cutbacks in energy-related capital spending”EnergyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will suffer a roughly 10% pullback in the first half of 2021, starting in February, March or April.
“I think we have a 10% kind of pullback, and I think that's a pause that refreshes,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's low of the September 2020 pullback will come before the November 3, 2020 US election, not after it.
“But as scary as this period is going to be, and I think stocks might be vulnerable, I think it's very likely stocks will make their lows before election day,”MarketsElections
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $7,000 per share (pre-split; about $467 after the 2020 and 2022 splits) by February 2025.
“Our confidence level that this stock is heading for $7,000 over the next five years is very high”MarketsTechnology