Inaccurate ●●●●●
During 2025, Meta's Llama models will become the most advanced AI models in the industry.
“Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.”AI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Within about a decade AI will greatly raise productivity and shift jobs and wages between industries.
“I think it will change the world tremendously in terms of people’s productivity and there will be a remapping of jobs, I think, and wage structure from some industries to others”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will be priced at $1 million or more by 2030.
“I don't know. Over... at least a million.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
No crypto asset other than bitcoin, including Ethereum, will get a US spot ETF.
“None of them will be wrapped by a spot ETF, none of them will ever be accepted by Wall Street…”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Within a year (by mid-2025), AI systems with very large context windows, AI agents and text-to-action capabilities will arrive.
“In the next year, you're going to see very large context windows, agents, and text to action. When they are delivered at scale, it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist by around the end of 2025.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Within five to ten years (by 2034), real-time computer graphics such as games will largely have every pixel generated by AI rather than rendered.
“And so I would say that within the next five to ten years, somewhere in between, it's largely the case.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will be smarter than all humans combined by the end of 2029.
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2029, AI will do well on every test humans can devise (Huang's test-based definition of AGI).
“If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years' time, we'll do well on every single one”AI
Partly right ●●●●●
In 2025, AI developers will be unable to find enough electricity to run all their AI chips.
“Then, the next shortage will be electricity. They won't be able to find enough electricity to run all the chips. I think next year, you'll see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips.”EnergyAI
Pending ●●●●●
The global installed base of data centers will double from about $1 trillion to about $2 trillion by early 2029.
“Over the course of the next four or five years, we’ll have $2 trillion worth of data centers that will be powering software around the world.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Russia-Ukraine war will be settled before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025.
“I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled before I even take office.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
US spot bitcoin ETFs, expected to be approved in early 2024, will create a demand shock for bitcoin, with large inflows.
“the approval of the spot ETFs is going to be a major catalyst, it's going to definitely drive a demand shock”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will rise over the 12 months after November 2023 as spot-ETF demand grows and the April 2024 halving cuts new supply.
“The price is going to adjust up,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
By November 2028, AI agents will let people do tasks by telling their device in everyday language, so they no longer need separate apps for different tasks.
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The singularity / artificial general intelligence surpassing human intelligence in almost all areas will arrive by the end of 2033.
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Thanks to AI and other technology, today's children will typically live to 100 without getting cancer.
“Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology.”HealthAI
Pending ●●●●●
Because of AI, the next generation will typically work a three-and-a-half-day week.
“And literally they'll probably be working three-and-a-half days a week.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
Partly right ●●●●●
AI-generated misinformation on social media will make the 2024 elections a mess.
“The 2024 elections are going to be a mess because social media is not protecting us from false generated AI”ElectionsAI
Pending ●●●●●
Regulation will shrink the crypto industry to bitcoin plus only six to twelve other proof-of-work tokens, with other tokens squeezed out (bitcoin dominance near 80%).
“So, the entire industry is kind of destined to be rationalized down to a Bitcoin-focussed industry with half a dozen to a dozen other proof-of-work tokens.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will beat Trump and DeSantis and win the 2024 US presidential election.
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Within about two years (by mid-2025), AI systems will be able to find zero-day exploits in software or discover new kinds of biology.
“There are scenarios not today, but reasonably soon, where these systems will be able to find zero-day exploits in cyber issues, or discover new kinds of biology. Now, this is fiction today, but its reasoning is likely to be true.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
After JPMorgan's First Republic takeover, no further large US bank failures will follow from the 2023 regional-bank crisis, at most another smaller one.
“There may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all,”BankingEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems will become as capable a tutor as the best human tutor.
“AIs will get to that ability, to be as good a tutor as any human ever could.”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate will rise above 5% (it was 4.25-4.5% at the time).
“I actually think rates are probably going to go higher than 5%”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The economic recession (which Musk said had begun) will last until about spring 2024.
“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will enter a recession within six to nine months, i.e. by July 2023.
“they're likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach gold's market value, about $500,000 per coin, by the end of 2029.
“if Bitcoin goes to the value of gold, it’s going to $500,000 a coin, and I think that happens this decade,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Chips such as GPUs will no longer get cheaper over time; prices at a given performance tier will not fall as they did under Moore's Law.
“And so the idea that the chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past”Technology