A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
“I think that's probably a likely outcome”Economy
“One of the estimates that I think is most likely is that data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027, and 67 more gigawatts by 2030.”EnergyAI
“The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,”Economy
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
“I've said before that I expect data center build out to reach a trillion dollars, and I am fairly certain we're going to reach that very soon”AITechnologyMarkets
“One way or the other, we're going to get it”Geopolitics
“Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024.”AI
“I think our internal benchmark is now around 50, and maybe we'll hit number one by the end of this year.”AI
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring,”AIHealth
“But now I have corrected that statement and I feel that AGI will actually arrive much sooner than that”AI
“I expect Threads to continue on its trajectory to become the leading discussion platform and eventually reach 1 billion people over the next several years.”Technology
“I also expect that 2025 will be the year when it becomes possible to build an AI engineering agent that has coding and problem-solving abilities of around a good mid-level engineer.”AITechnology
“In AI, I expect this is going to be the year when a highly intelligent and personalized AI assistant reaches more than 1 billion people, and I expect Meta AI to be that leading AI assistant.”AI
“15 years for useful quantum computers and that would be on the early side. 30 years is probably on the late side. If you picked 20 years a whole bunch of us would believe it.”Technology
“And every car is going to be robotic. Humanoid robots, the technology necessary to make it possible, is just around the corner.”Self-drivingAI
“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”AI
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.”AIEconomy
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
“I think by 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people”TechnologyAI
“Just 27 days from now, we are going to win Pennsylvania, we are going to defeat Lying Kamala Harris.”Elections
“My own opinion is that we're not going to hit the climate goals anyway because we are not organized to do it”ClimateEnergy
“AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf.”AITechnology
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”AI
“we are going to win New York.”Elections
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology
“While expert opinions may vary, my view is that ASI will be ten thousand times more intelligent than humans and realized in about ten years.”AI