A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I do know that the U.S. economy is strong, and we will get to the other side of this. And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well.”EconomyHealth
“So the whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half at least.”Health
“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”Economy
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
“maybe like one percent or two percent or something like that”Economy
“I think now, you know, we're looking at GDP growth of about 3.5% this year and carrying on to something a little bit north of three next year.”Economy
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
“we project that our policies will create about a 3 percent growth rate going forward over the next 10 years.”EconomyPolitics
“My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, and with the ongoing strengthening of labor markets, I expect inflation to move higher next year.”Economy
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
“I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be”BankingEconomy
“We will definitely get surprised in the next few years.”Health
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”EconomyElections
“we will not have a widely available, safe and effective Zika vaccine this year and probably not even in the next few years”Health
“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”Markets