A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“As to whether there is a recession in the near term, that is more likely than not. It is not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not”Economy
“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way.”Economy
“My view is a pretty good chance there will be more than four. It could be six or seven.”Economy
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
“It's pretty clear, digital gold is going to replace gold this decade.”CryptoMarkets
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”TechnologyEconomy
“By the end of this decade or even by the middle of the decade, I would guess that we're going to reach a point where our VR devices will start to be clearly better for almost every use case than our laptops and computers are.”Technology
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy
“We have a lot of cash and capability and we're going to be very patient, because I think you have a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory,”Economy
“This boom could easily run into 2023.”Economy
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom,”Economy
“By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal”HealthEconomy
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”AIHealth
“Two days from now, we are going to win the State of Michigan again”Elections
“we'll have at least five or six countries coming along very quickly”Geopolitics
“We are delivering lifesaving therapies and will produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner.”Health
“for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022.”HealthEconomy
“I bet there’ll be some vaccines that will get out to lots of patients without the full regulatory review somewhere in the world.”Health
“We're signing a health care plan within two weeks”HealthPolitics
“But I think that it's possible that over the next five to 10 years — maybe closer to 10 than five, but somewhere in that range — I think we could get to about half of the company working remotely permanently.”EconomyTechnology
“And I think we're going to be successful in doing it, and hopefully by the end of the year.”Health
“The minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we'll be substantially under that number”Health
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”Health
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
“at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.”Technology
“We're going to have over 400 miles of wall built, much of it is already started, by the end of next year”Politics
“I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet”GeopoliticsTechnology
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto