A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“No, we have not hit bottom yet. Watch for failures, then look for the bottom,”Markets
“I'm betting the market will bend, not break, through a rough September, and when we get through that period, that June low will hold.”Markets
“There's no doubt in my mind that we will get a higher number than 9.1 percent”Economy
“in order to stop the inflationary spiral, the Fed will need to rapidly raise rates to 4-5% by next year, which hopefully will be enough to snuff inflation.”EconomyMarkets
“That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression.”MarketsEconomy
“Deflationary pulses from this- -> disinflation in CPI later this year --> Fed reverses itself on rates and QT --> Cycles.”Economy
“I think it goes to $12,000, where it was before this whole fiasco began.”Crypto
“We should look the Fed to increase by at least 50 basis points this coming week.”Economy
“I fear that it's still going to get worse, we may well get to 9% at this rate.”Economy
“they’ve fallen so darn far that I think they’ve become metaphors for a whole host of stocks that are now ready to rally because they’ve got nowhere else to go but up”MarketsTechnology
“If #Bitcoin breaks decisively below $30K it seems highly likely that it will crash below $10K.”Crypto
“It is telling us that the central banks are bankrupt, that we are at the end of the fiat money regime.”EconomyCryptoBanking
“its economy is set also to contract by about a third”EconomyGeopolitics
“Overall, the US is likely to outperform Europe, which is likely to slide into recession”EconomyGeopolitics
“Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year”EconomyGeopolitics
“the higher you go, the longer and greater the pain you will have to endure to get back to trend – in the current case to a trend value of about 2500 on the S&P 500, adjusted for the passage of time, from whatever high point the market might reach (currently at nearly 4700).”Markets
“my conviction is growing that the bigger surprise to the markets will be price deflation – both cyclical and secular”Economy
“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”Economy
“It's pretty clear, digital gold is going to replace gold this decade.”CryptoMarkets
“As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”Economy
“It's the most honest market we have in the country, and it's telling us that this decrepit … regime is just about to blow up.”EconomyCryptoBanking
“Giant stock market crash coming October.”Markets
“I think inflation will remain higher than the Federal Reserve expects and we're going to have to do something about it.”Economy
“We think based on the declining costs of battery pack systems that electric vehicle prices will drop below gas powered prices in a year or so.”TechnologyEnergy
“So we think that 2.2 million will be 40 million in five years – in 2025.”TechnologyEnergy
“We are going to have an extremely strong economy coming in the fall”Economy
“come the turn of the year, I think we are going to have meaningfully higher yields as people realize the economy is going to make a big recovery.”MarketsEconomy
“We believe oil prices will not be far behind, despite the significant cutbacks in energy-related capital spending”EnergyEconomy
“All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes”MarketsCrypto
“In an inflationary crisis, governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena. $BTC #gold.”CryptoEconomyPolitics