A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
“In our view, the market today is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the US economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year.”Economy
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
“But now I have corrected that statement and I feel that AGI will actually arrive much sooner than that”AI
“That crash will be in February 2025.”Markets
“MY PRICE PREDICTION for BITCOIN 2025: $175,000 to $350,000”Crypto
“I expect that in the second Trump administration, Trump and his team will get the job done.”BankingPolitics
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets
“Look, the good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics
“I estimate that over the next 25 years, possibly 80% of 80% of all jobs, can be done by an AI”AIEconomy
“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close.”Elections
“While expert opinions may vary, my view is that ASI will be ten thousand times more intelligent than humans and realized in about ten years.”AI
“@realDonaldTrump is going to win in a landslide.”ElectionsPolitics
“I'm almost certain, within the next 10-15 years, we can have free doctors for everybody on the planet, or near-free, with the cost of computing”HealthAI
“I am confident Bitcoin will hit $350,000 sometime in 2024 but for it's only a target, a dream, and a wish.”Crypto
“None of them will be wrapped by a spot ETF, none of them will ever be accepted by Wall Street…”Crypto
“we think the cost of an electric vehicle, the average electric vehicle, is going to be cut in half”Technology
“BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.”Crypto
“We think electric vehicles are going to continue to gain share and really take over the market in the next five years.”TechnologyEnergy
“We think interest rates are going to fall sooner and faster than most expect…and that should be supportive of valuations”EconomyMarkets
“If by then, as I expect, Dean is polling substantially better than Biden against Trump, I predict that the party will choose Dean Phillips over Biden. The party will have no choice”ElectionsPolitics
“Once the ETFs are launched and the highly anticipated institutional and other new investor demand does not show up, look out below!”Crypto
“The big surprise in 2024 will not only be that the #economy crashes into recession, but that high #inflation returns with a vengeance.”Economy
“the approval of the spot ETFs is going to be a major catalyst, it's going to definitely drive a demand shock”CryptoMarkets
“Broadly speaking, I actually agree with Savita Subramanian at Bank of America that we could go to 5000 on the S&P”Markets
“The Federal Reserve has overdone it, we’re going to see a lot more deflation going forward”Economy
“The price is going to adjust up,”Crypto
“I can't go out with bitcoin [BTC] because I can't be in something where Mr. Bitcoin is about to go down big”CryptoMarkets
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI