Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will rise substantially as the economy reopens from COVID with more stimulus (inferred window: about two years, to Feb 2023).
“Prepare for #inflation”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall permanently to zero.
“While a temporary move up to $100K is possible, a permanent move down to zero is inevitable”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
The US stock market bubble of 2020 will burst within about two years (by early 2023), with damaging effects on the economy and portfolios.
“But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios.”MarketsEconomy
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold will reach $3,000 by May 2021, Bitcoin $75,000 by May 2023 and silver $40 by May 2025.
“GOLD [currently] at $1700. Predict $3000 in 1 year. Silver [currently] at $17. Predict $40 in 5 years. Bitcoin [currently] at $9800. Predict $75000 in 3 years.”MarketsCrypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The U.S. stock market will have a bad second quarter of 2020 (April-June), following its awful first quarter.
“Just like the first quarter, I'm betting the second quarter will be bad — maybe not as bad as it could be, though”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
After the COVID crash, financial markets will recover well before the real economy does.
“The financial markets are going to lead the real economy.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The world economy will fall into recession in 2020 because of the coronavirus.
“We are going into a global recession.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut rates in response to the coronavirus, and financial markets will still start to freeze up.
“markets will start freezing up even if the Fed cuts rates, which I think it will”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $7,000 per share (pre-split; about $467 after the 2020 and 2022 splits) by February 2025.
“Our confidence level that this stock is heading for $7,000 over the next five years is very high”MarketsTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
The US (CPI inflation then about 2%) will be hit by a surge of high inflation.
“We are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $100,000.
“Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will win re-election in the November 2020 US presidential election.
“I think the president will get reelected”Elections
Pending ●●●●●
The passive index-fund "bubble" will end in a crash (no timeline given).
“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $50,000.
“Bitcoin will never hit 50k.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The US Treasury yield curve will invert in 2019, without signalling a recession.
“The yield curve will invert, and one of the reasons is inflation is going to be much lower than expected”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US economic growth in 2019 will beat expectations (surprise on the high side).
“The economy is going to surprise on the high side next year”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates once more in December 2018 and then pause, instead of the three 2019 hikes it projected.
“It's going to be one and done in December. That's what I'm saying is happening”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $4,000 per share (pre-2020-split price; $800 after the 2020 5-for-1 split, about $267 after the 2022 3-for-1 split).
“If we're right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Markets will keep rising through 2018 so that holding cash will badly underperform stocks.
“If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will come to a bad ending (collapse).
“In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending”CryptoMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2047 the world's population of smart robots will reach about 10 billion, roughly equal to the human population.
“I predict 30 years from now, the number of smart robots, the smart robot population on this earth will be 10 billion.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be over 1,000,000 in 100 years (by 2117).
“over 1 million”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2047, a single chip embedded in an everyday item like a shoe will be more intelligent than the human brain.
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The number of connected IoT chips/devices will grow to one trillion by the end of 2037.
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
The technological singularity (machine superintelligence surpassing human intelligence) will become a reality by the end of 2047.
“I totally believe this concept. In the next 30 years this will become a reality.”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Brexit vote, the Bank of England will cut rates and the ECB and Bank of Japan will add more monetary stimulus/QE in 2016.
“I expect the Bank of England to cut rates and I expect the ECB to do more QE, as will the Bank of Japan.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
Despite Brexit, no rival European city (Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam) will overtake London as Europe's dominant financial centre.
“no one will reach critical mass to challenge London's overall European dominance.”BankingGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
US economic growth will slow to about 1.5% within six months (by mid-2016).
“We're going to have a lower level of growth in six months from now ... about 1.5 percent.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar (Dollar Index then near 99) will crash, with a collapse larger than he had earlier forecast.
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2016, wiping out most of the jobs created since 2012.
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy