Inaccurate ●●●●●
By November 2006, the Tablet PC will be the best-selling form of personal computer in the United States.
“within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America”Technology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2010 TVs will understand spoken commands, identify the person named from your contacts, and relay a message to them.
“I guarantee, ten years from now I'm going to yell at my television set, 'Hey, Bill; did you see that putt?'”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
PayPal will make it nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal citizens' wealth through inflation and currency devaluation, because people will switch to stronger currencies.
“It will be nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal wealth from their people through their old means”TechnologyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Pocket-sized "wallet PCs" will be able to tell users their exact location anywhere on Earth.
“Wallet PCs with the right equipment will be able to tell you exactly where you are anyplace on the face of the earth.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
People will be able to control televisions, PCs and other information devices by speaking to them.
“Eventually we’ll also be able to speak to televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Cable Internet access to homes will arrive within three to four years of August 1995 (by August 1999).
“I think one of the exciting things that going to happen over the next three or four years is cable Internet access.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
New access providers (MCI, the regional Bells, online services) will offer cheap nationwide Internet access, sharply increasing the number of people going online by about 1997.
“They are going to provide nationwide coverage at extremely competitive rates. It's going to be really revolutionary in terms of the number of people who will be going online.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
About ten years out (by 2005), multi-megabit data access, including wireless, will be available just about everywhere.
“You’re going to get megabits of data while you’re eating, and you are not even going to think twice about it.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
From 1995 to 2005, network bandwidth will grow and fall in price even faster than microprocessor power improves.
“I don't think it's too much of an overstatement to say that bandwidth is going to be increasing, overall, in scope – and decreasing in price – even faster than microprocessors are in terms of power over the next 10 years”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Within three to five years (by 1999), the Internet/Web will become a new mass medium for society in general.
“three to five years from now there will be a new type of medium for society in general.”Technology