A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“right now, it's looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year”EconomyPolitics
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”EconomyPolitics
“We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect--as you--as you point out, we, we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”Economy
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”EconomyPolitics
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
“I don't think that you're going to see a big effect on the consumer in the U.S. because I do think that the reason why we have a persistent, long-run trade deficit these people have very inelastic supply.”EconomyPoliticsGeopolitics
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
“There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”Banking
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
“I think when we come to the end of 2024, 2 is certainly, you know, likely to be the first numeral.”Economy
“My baseline is that we'll achieve a soft landing.”Economy
“My best guess would be that we’re going to need more interest-rate increasing”MarketsEconomy
“the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby weigh on demand, on the labor market, and on inflation.”BankingEconomy
“My best guess would probably be 5.5% or a little above 5.5%. But 6% would not surprise me greatly.”MarketsEconomy
“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”Economy
“Well, I believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation. if there's not-- an unanticipated shock.”Economy
“The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%”Economy
“My guess is that [the] pound will find its way below parity with both the dollar and euro”MarketsEconomy
“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.”Economy
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation”Economy
“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”Economy
“I think we have a good chance to have a soft or softish landing or outcome, if you will.”Economy
“My sense of this is that given the likely paths of inflation, we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years.”MarketsEconomy
“in my view, the probability of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated.”Economy