A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”AI
“This article claims the global market is around $2B/year in 2021 and is projected to grow around 30%/year. I predict it will grow faster.”AIMarkets
“Nowadays, hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort”AITechnology
“We’re in a new chip shortage.”TechnologyAI
“OpenAI, Google, Facebook, and DeepMind all have gigantic multimodal transformers, similar in size to GPT-3 but trained on images, video, maybe audio too, and generally higher-quality data.”AI
“China and USA are in a full-on chip battle now, with export controls and tariffs.”GeopoliticsTechnology
“Not only that, but they are now typically fine-tuned in various ways--for example, to answer questions correctly, or produce engaging conversation as a chatbot.”AI
“So, the most compute spent on a single training run is something like 5x10^25 FLOPs.”AITechnology
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts.”AI
“In the early 2030s, we'll have universal basic income in the developed world, and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.”EconomyAI
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”TechnologyHealth
“I have set the date 2045 for the 'Singularity' which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.”AI
“2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence.”AI
“It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”HealthAI
“In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.”EnergyClimate
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”Technology
“Certainly within the next 20 to 25 years we will succeed in fully decoding the human brain just as we're now nearing completion of the decoding of the human genome.”TechnologyAIHealth
“Over the next 10 years we will be reversing most diseases like cancer and also aging processes”Health
“But 200 calculations a second times a hundred trillion-fold parallelism is about 20 million billion calculations per second, or about 20 billion mips. And we'll achieve that in a thousand dollar PC or equivalent by around 2019.”TechnologyAI
“Translating telephone technology (where you speak in English and your Japanese friend hears you in Japanese, and vice versa) is commonly used for many language pairs.”AITechnology
““Phone” calls routinely include high-resolution three-dimensional images projected through the direct-eye displays and auditory lenses.”Technology
“Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity”Economy
“Individuals primarily use portable computers.”Technology
“A company west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line has surpassed a trillion dollars in market capitalization.”MarketsTechnology
“Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices.”GeopoliticsTechnology
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”Technology
“A $1,000 personal computer can perform about a trillion calculations per second.”Technology
“Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.”Self-drivingTechnology
“The all-enveloping tactile environment is now widely available and fully convincing.”Technology
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”TechnologyAI