Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve (rates then near zero) will never be able to raise interest rates back up.
“They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up.”EconomyMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Right, but late ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 2015 meeting.
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will rise gradually from about $57 (WTI) over the 18 months to end-2016.
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will not return to $100 a barrel (long-run claim, inferred window about 10 years to 2025).
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise above 18,000 within six to seven weeks of November 11, 2014 (by about December 30, 2014).
“I believe the next six or seven weeks are going to take us beyond 18,000 on the Dow”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold will rise through $2,000 an ounce very quickly (read here as within about a year, by end of 2015).
“it'll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn't buy gold at $1,700.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After topping near 17,000, the Dow will fall to about 5,800 within a few years of August 2014 (by end of 2017).
“the Dow is going to go to about 17,000 and then a few years from now it is going to test the bottom at about 5,800.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US stocks will suffer a crash larger than 2008-09, with the Dow falling to around 6,000 by the end of 2016.
“I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's property bubble will soon burst, wiping out rich Chinese savings so they stop bidding up Australian and other foreign real estate (inferred window about two years, to early 2016).
“I think the rich Chinese have all their money in real estate, both at home and abroad, and they are going to get hosed so bad their savings will dissipate and they are not going to be running around bidding up real estate in Australia or anywhere else.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's investment-led growth model is about to hit its limits and the Chinese economy will crash within a couple of years of 2013.
“You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Gold will fall from about $1,400 to around $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2015.
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US Dollar Index (then about 80) will fall by at least half, to 40 or below.
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,700/oz) will make a big move up toward $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2014.
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 by the end of 2013.
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2013 a "global perfect storm" (euro debt crisis, US fiscal tightening, China hard landing, emerging-market slowdown) will hit the world economy.
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro within months ("very possibly" in June 2012), as the first step of the euro's endgame.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail (inferred window about four years, to end-2014).
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar will collapse, losing 50-70% of its value, before the end of Barack Obama's first term (January 2013).
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,100/oz) will reach about $5,000 an ounce within the next several years (read as by end of 2016).
“I think $5,000 is a reasonable expectation of where gold is headed over the course of the next several years, based on monetary and fiscal policy that is in place.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 index will fall to 600 or below in 2009.
“My main scenario is that it's highly likely it goes to 600 or below,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US stock market will post a gain for calendar year 2008.
“I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.
“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%; inferred window about two years, to Sept 2008).
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US house prices will fall a long way and homebuilding will go through a prolonged slump after the 2006 peak.
“If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought.”EconomyMarketsBanking