A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“By 2030, 2 billion people who don't have a bank account today will be storing money and making payments with their phones.”BankingTechnologyEconomy
“Almost all countries will include vaccines for diarrhea and pneumonia, two of the biggest killers of children, in their immunization programs.”Health
“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”Health
“When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE”MarketsTechnology
“My prediction is that libertarians are going to turn on Bitcoin. That’ll be in about two years, when it’ll be mainstream”Crypto
“I am more bullish about the future of the news industry over the next 20 years than almost anyone I know. You are going to see it grow 10X to 100X from where it is today.”Economy
“WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people.”Technology
“By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.”Economy
“If something is to displace Bitcoin now, it will have to have sizable improvements and it will have to happen quickly. Otherwise, this network effect will carry Bitcoin to dominance.”CryptoMarkets
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
“There's going to be close to 400m PCs sold in the next year, which makes it a big market.”Technology
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”HealthAI
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology
“by the summer of 2012 .... the majority of the televisions that you see in the television stores here will have Google TV embedded in it”Technology
“Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.”TechnologyEconomy
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.”Technology
“Ten years from now when we sit together we’ll look back and we’ll say, ‘Wasn’t technology primitive in 2009? Computers didn’t recognize our speech, our voice, our intention. We didn’t have instantaneous access to the world’s information. We’ve gotten rid of paper as a means of n…”TechnologyAI
“The libertarian future of classic science fiction, à la Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century.”SpacePolitics
“The economy shrinks and then it doesn't rebound, it rebuilds from a lower base. We're not expecting a bounce.”Economy
“there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”Technology
“I think these things [social networks] are going to have some legs, and yet there’s a faddishness, a faddish nature about anything that basically appeals to younger people”Technology
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Technology
“I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had”Technology
“I so believe that $1.25 or cheaper cellulosic ethanol is less than three years away”EnergyClimate
“So, my guess is, if we're lucky, we'll have commercial-scale plants in three years. If we're very unlucky, it will be six.”EnergyClimate
“Based on my forecasts, including the considerable upside afforded by technology innovations, biomass based ethanol can replace most of our gasoline needs in twenty years”EnergyClimate
“The hottest company right now — the one nobody thinks can do any wrong — may just be a one-hit wonder.”Technology
“Two years from now, spam will be solved”Technology