Inaccurate ●●●●●
The world death rate will rise substantially (in the 1970s, per the surrounding passage) because of famine.
“At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Health
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
India will be unable to feed an additional 200 million people by 1980.
“I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death during the 1970s.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”Health