A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I think the Democrats will do well enough in the midterms, in a month and a half, that they will be indifferent to a center-left vs. far-left presidential candidate”ElectionsPolitics
“And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth.”EconomyAI
“the idea that somebody's willing to pay $1000 per million tokens is just around the corner. It's not if, it's only when.”AIMarkets
“Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.”AIEconomy
“By 2030, there will be no such thing as IT services or BPO, they will be gone.”EconomyAI
“By 2050, it'll be very clear that nobody needs jobs because with enough production of goods and services that are near free, you won't need jobs.”EconomyAI
“So white-collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”AIEconomy
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
“We are going to have AI systems that have humanlike and human-level intelligence, but they’re not going to be built on LLMs, and it’s not going to happen next year or two years from now.”AI
“In five years' time, everybody will have their own AI companion who knows them so intimately and so personally that they will come to live life alongside you”AITechnology
“I think we’ll hit AGI next year in ‘26”AI
“I’m confident by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”AI
“The Tory party in the UK is probably completely past the point of no return.”PoliticsElections
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
“I believe that 10 years from now, a small number of ASI leaders will be generating value on a scale equivalent to at least 5% of global GDP—around ¥1,300 trillion.”AIEconomy
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
“And fusion I think is definitely doable, it seems, if we have the right design of reactor and we can control the plasma and fast enough and so on, and I think both of those things will actually get solved. So we'll probably have at least those are probably the two primary source…”EnergyClimate
“New types of solar material, solar panel material room temperature superconductors has always been on my list of dream breakthroughs, and optimal batteries. And I think a solution to any one of those things would be absolutely revolutionary for climate and energy usage. And we'r…”AIEnergyClimate
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”EconomyAI
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
“Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it”AIEconomy
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology