A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.”AITechnology
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI”AIHealth
“Technical moat will continue to be elusive. Instead, there will be more convergence on broadly similar models, across both US and China; some systems in Europe will catch up to roughly the same place.”AITechnologyGeopolitics
“it will enable us to create highly intelligent and knowledgeable assistants who will increase productivity in almost all industries.”AIEconomy
“But it's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in two years,”AI
“I think next year we're going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen.”AI
“But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change.”AITechnologyEconomy
“And I think in another year we'll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don't know, but might even be less than that.”AI
“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”HealthAI
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”HealthAI
“I will tell you why the collapse of the generative AI bubble – in a financial sense – appears imminent, likely before the end of the calendar year.”AIMarkets
“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we'll be getting all of our energy that way, and it'll keep getting cheaper.”EnergyClimate
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
“But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”AITechnology
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”Health
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI
“I'm very convinced that we're going to largely eliminate hallucinations over the next year. And they're going to be as accurate as any content that you can find on the web”AI
“I'm pretty sure that within the next five years, certainly before the end of the decade, we are going to have not just those capabilities, but those capabilities widely available for very cheap, potentially even in open source”AIEconomy
“the legislation will not happen in the U.S. because one of the major political parties has tied its fate to the successful propagation of fake news.”PoliticsAI
“The way I see it is that in 5 years, everybody is gonna have their own 'chief of staff,'”AITechnology
“I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence.”AI
“The "hard take-off" scenario is utterly impossible.”AI
“2023 is likely to see widespread adoption of such systems—despite their flaws.”AITechnology
“Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced”AITechnology
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology
“Its natural language output still won’t be something that one can reliably hook up to downstream programs”AITechnology