Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $800,000 to $1 million by 2037-2040.
“Bitcoin, I see going up to $800,000 to $1 million by 2037 to ’40.”CryptoMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“Look, the good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by the end of the decade (end of 2029).
“We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,800 by the end of 2024.
“We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth in 2024 will be only slightly above 4%, helped by a moderate stimulus.
“China will most likely implement a moderate stimulus that is sufficient to get growth slightly above 4% in 2024.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After US spot bitcoin ETFs launch (January 2024), expected investor demand will fail to appear and bitcoin's price (then about $45,000) will fall sharply (read as during 2024).
“Once the ETFs are launched and the highly anticipated institutional and other new investor demand does not show up, look out below!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2024 the US economy will fall into recession and high inflation (CPI then about 3%) will return.
“The big surprise in 2024 will not only be that the #economy crashes into recession, but that high #inflation returns with a vengeance.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2024 will bring the biggest stock market crash of our lifetimes (he cited an 86% fall in the S&P 500).
“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
By the end of 2024, US annual inflation will be in the 2-point-something percent range.
“I think when we come to the end of 2024, 2 is certainly, you know, likely to be the first numeral.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will achieve a soft landing in 2024, bringing inflation down without a recession.
“My baseline is that we'll achieve a soft landing.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more after its July 2023 hike, within the next few months (by end of January 2024).
“My best guess would be that we’re going to need more interest-rate increasing”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The bull market will continue through at least end-2024, with the S&P 500 setting a new record high between 4,800 and 5,400 within 18 months of July 2023.
“We see the bull market that started on October 12, 2022, continuing through at least the end of next year with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high somewhere between 4,800 and 5,400 over the next 18 months”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
From late June 2023, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England will each raise interest rates further before pausing (inferred window: rest of 2023).
“The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and most other major central banks will have to raise rates even more before they can pause.”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
AI chatbots like ChatGPT will not have large macroeconomic effects (e.g. on productivity) until the 2030s.
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”AIEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation (CPI then about 6%) will rise much higher because of the March 2023 bank bailouts (read as within about a year).
“Rate hikes don't matter. Inflation is headed much higher, thanks to bank bailouts”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The 2023 banking crisis (after Silicon Valley Bank's failure) will be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
“One reason we had the 2008 financial crisis was too much government regulation. That's why this crisis will be worse.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate will peak at about 5.5% or a little above in the 2022-2023 hiking cycle.
“My best guess would probably be 5.5% or a little above 5.5%. But 6% would not surprise me greatly.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US stocks will keep falling in a crash (S&P 500 down as much as 86%) to an ultimate low around July 2024.
“I feel like the ultimate low at this point for stocks is likely to be… July or so of 2024,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,900/oz) will fall to $900-$1,000 an ounce by mid-2024.
“I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $23,000) will fall to $3,250 before starting a longer-term boom.
“I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom,”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will stop falling and settle around 4% by mid-2023.
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will get a soft landing: inflation will keep falling, and any recession will be mild.
“And my own prediction is indeed for a softish landing: Inflation does seem to be coming down, and while we might not completely avoid a recession, if we have one it will probably be mild.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2023.
“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US stocks will deliver strong gains in calendar year 2023.
“I think 2023 is going to be a very good year for equities.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting the federal funds rate by mid-2023 (June 30, 2023).
“I think the Fed will start bringing down the funds rate by mid-year 2023.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will be much lower by the end of 2023 than in late 2022.
“Well, I believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation. if there's not-- an unanticipated shock.”Economy