A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and an accompanying decline in stock prices”EconomyMarkets
“I would be very surprised if we don’t find ourselves in a world with persistent ~3% inflation”Economy
“Bitcoin to $120k next year.”Crypto
“August 22, 2023, in Johannesburg, South Africa, BRICS nations announce gold backed crypto.”EconomyCryptoGeopolitics
“So, the entire industry is kind of destined to be rationalized down to a Bitcoin-focussed industry with half a dozen to a dozen other proof-of-work tokens.”Crypto
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
“AI will not cause mass unemployment”AIEconomy
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
“Within 5 to 6 years, the FDA will approve a primary care app qualified to practice medicine like your primary care physician”HealthAI
“We think that the robotaxi opportunity, globally, will deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030”Self-drivingAIMarkets
“Rate hikes don't matter. Inflation is headed much higher, thanks to bank bailouts”EconomyBanking
“One reason we had the 2008 financial crisis was too much government regulation. That's why this crisis will be worse.”BankingEconomy
“By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000.”MarketsCrypto
“in fact, we are a little higher than that in our base case for the year 2030, and in our bull case, much higher.”Crypto
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%”Economy
“We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition.”Economy
“Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike.”Economy
“The Fed cannot change its target now, but will likely do so in the future.”Economy
“U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above”Economy
“Don't make the mistake of thinking that #Bitcoin is forming a floor at $17K. It's forming the next ceiling.”Crypto
“So we are really looking at an extended multiyear recession.”Economy
“You've got to adjust your mindset to a world where the bears are finally in retreat, because I'm betting the next four weeks will be much better than what we've come to be used to”Markets
“We would not be surprised to see broad-based inflation turn negative in 2023”Economy
“Yes, [a recession] is now inevitable. The question is depth and duration”Economy
“if Bitcoin goes to the value of gold, it’s going to $500,000 a coin, and I think that happens this decade,”Crypto
“My guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5 percent to 5 percent long term, barring shocks”Economy
“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range)”EconomyBanking
“My guesstimate that a significant economic contraction will be required, but it will take a while to happen because cash levels and wealth levels are now relatively high”Economy
“I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices”MarketsEconomy
“So we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months.”Economy