A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“Then, the next shortage will be electricity. They won't be able to find enough electricity to run all the chips. I think next year, you'll see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips.”EnergyAI
“I'm very convinced that we're going to largely eliminate hallucinations over the next year. And they're going to be as accurate as any content that you can find on the web”AI
“Over the course of the next four or five years, we’ll have $2 trillion worth of data centers that will be powering software around the world.”AITechnology
“I'm pretty sure that within the next five years, certainly before the end of the decade, we are going to have not just those capabilities, but those capabilities widely available for very cheap, potentially even in open source”AIEconomy
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
“The way I see it is that in 5 years, everybody is gonna have their own 'chief of staff,'”AITechnology
“The 2024 elections are going to be a mess because social media is not protecting us from false generated AI”ElectionsAI
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
“AI will not cause mass unemployment”AIEconomy
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
“There are scenarios not today, but reasonably soon, where these systems will be able to find zero-day exploits in cyber issues, or discover new kinds of biology. Now, this is fiction today, but its reasoning is likely to be true.”AITechnology
“Within 5 to 6 years, the FDA will approve a primary care app qualified to practice medicine like your primary care physician”HealthAI
“The "hard take-off" scenario is utterly impossible.”AI
“AIs will get to that ability, to be as good a tutor as any human ever could.”AI
“AI is improving quickly and I expect it to keep improving further and ironing out bugs like this over time.”AITechnology
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24”EconomyMarkets
“And so the idea that the chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past”Technology
“I definitely think that in the medium-term future cryptocurrencies will settle down and be only about as volatile as gold or the stock market.”CryptoMarkets
“As to whether there is a recession in the near term, that is more likely than not. It is not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not”Economy
“I expect to see many more applications using ZK-SNARKs, and eventually applications combining ZK-SNARKs with other forms of cryptography, to be built in the years to come.”TechnologyCrypto
“It is telling us that the central banks are bankrupt, that we are at the end of the fiat money regime.”EconomyCryptoBanking
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”AI
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”TechnologyEconomy
“By the end of this decade or even by the middle of the decade, I would guess that we're going to reach a point where our VR devices will start to be clearly better for almost every use case than our laptops and computers are.”Technology
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy