A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“By making these changes, I expect the time people spend on Facebook and some measures of engagement will go down.”Technology
“In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending”CryptoMarkets
“Year after that, robot taxis. The year after that, self-driving cars.”Self-drivingAI
“By 2030, they will dominate the industries.”AIGeopolitics
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AIGeopolitics
“By 2025, they will be better than us.”AIGeopolitics
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”Health
“I predict 30 years from now, the number of smart robots, the smart robot population on this earth will be 10 billion.”TechnologyAI
“over 1 million”Markets
“Don't ask me to short it. It could be at $20,000 before this happens, but it will eventually blow up.”Crypto
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
“I totally believe this concept. In the next 30 years this will become a reality.”AI
“respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place in the years ahead.”Health
“North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!”Geopolitics
“But we're bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent.”Economy
“You will see a drop like you've never seen before.”Economy
“We're going to put the miners back to work.”EnergyEconomy
“I wouldn't be surprised if you fast-forward five years and most of the content that people see on Facebook and are sharing on a day-to-day basis is video.”Technology
“Mexico, as sure as you're standing here, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.”PoliticsGeopolitics
“Within the next 15 years—and especially if young people get involved—I expect the world will discover a clean energy breakthrough that will save our planet and power our world.”EnergyClimate
“There will be no real-time, non-controlled currency in the world. There is no government that is going to put up with it for long.”Crypto
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”Self-drivingAI
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”Health
“In 1990, one in 10 children in the world died before age 5. Today, it's one in 20. By 2030, that number will be one in 40.”Health
“By 2030, 2 billion people who don't have a bank account today will be storing money and making payments with their phones.”BankingTechnologyEconomy
“Almost all countries will include vaccines for diarrhea and pneumonia, two of the biggest killers of children, in their immunization programs.”Health
“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”Health
“WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people.”Technology
“By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.”Economy