A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“#Bitcoin days are numbered. It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling.”Crypto
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
“the circulation, advertising and profits of the newspaper industry overall are certain to decline. That prediction still holds.”EconomyTechnology
“There's going to be close to 400m PCs sold in the next year, which makes it a big market.”Technology
“RIM [Blackberry maker Research in Motion] is going to zero,”TechnologyMarkets
“I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,”EconomyMarkets
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology
“by the summer of 2012 .... the majority of the televisions that you see in the television stores here will have Google TV embedded in it”Technology
“A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.”Economy
“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.”Technology
“within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.”Economy
“Ten years from now when we sit together we’ll look back and we’ll say, ‘Wasn’t technology primitive in 2009? Computers didn’t recognize our speech, our voice, our intention. We didn’t have instantaneous access to the world’s information. We’ve gotten rid of paper as a means of n…”TechnologyAI
“We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond”Economy
“The economy shrinks and then it doesn't rebound, it rebuilds from a lower base. We're not expecting a bounce.”Economy
“Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree.”Markets
“In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.”Economy
“there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”Technology
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”Markets
“I think these things [social networks] are going to have some legs, and yet there’s a faddishness, a faddish nature about anything that basically appeals to younger people”Technology
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Technology
“I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had”Technology
“The hottest company right now — the one nobody thinks can do any wrong — may just be a one-hit wonder.”Technology
“Two years from now, spam will be solved”Technology
“within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America”Technology
“I guarantee, ten years from now I'm going to yell at my television set, 'Hey, Bill; did you see that putt?'”Technology
“I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like–anything like–they’ve performed in the past 17. If I had to pick the most probable return, from appreciation and dividends combined, that investors in aggrega…”Markets
“Wallet PCs with the right equipment will be able to tell you exactly where you are anyplace on the face of the earth.”Technology
“Eventually we’ll also be able to speak to televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances.”Technology