A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“And what's going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding his savings, especially when he sees his home equity evaporate. And when you have the economy 70 percent consumption, you can't address those imbalances without a recess…”Economy
“My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.”EconomyMarketsPolitics
“We’re on the road to 3% to 4% growth in the second half of this year.”Economy
“But it’s my belief that the S&P has probably hit a low.”Markets
“From 2010 to 2023 we will see a depressionary, deflationary downturn that will look and feel like the 30s.”Economy
“By late 2002, we'll see a new bull market.”Markets
“we are still predicting the Dow at 35,000 in late 2008 or 2009.”Markets
“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”Markets
“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”Economy
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”TechnologyEconomy
“That is, I predict (OK, guess) that there will be an extended workout, in which countries will be obliged to keep negotiating with their creditors for delays in repayment, but that the situation will gradually improve. I don't think Asia is headed for a Latin-America-in-the-80s …”EconomyBanking
“The economy will start to grow at moderately strong rates from late 1997 into 2002.”Economy
“So standard economic analysis suggests that we cannot look forward to growth at a rate of much more than 2 percent over the next few years.”Economy
“barring a catastrophic political upheaval, it is likely that growth in East Asia will continue to outpace growth in the West for the next decade and beyond. But it will not do so at the pace of recent years.”EconomyGeopolitics
“will likely be in a balanced budget or surplus by 1998 to 2000.”EconomyPolitics
“There will most emphatically not be a Great Depression of the 1990s.”Economy