Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation in the post-pandemic surge will not reach double digits (10% or more).
“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Partly right ●●●●●
In the second half of 2022, US inflation will be moving back toward the normal 2% rate.
“Sometime during the second half of the year we'll see inflation rates moving back toward the 2% that we regard as normal.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Many of the pandemic supply-chain bottlenecks will ease during 2022.
“I expect that next year, many of the supply bottlenecks that we're experiencing now in opening up our economy will recede”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation will get back to the roughly 2% range during 2022.
“Well, I expect that to happen next year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will "wimp out" and postpone finishing its taper and raising interest rates in the face of stagflation (inferred window about one year, to end-2022).
“They are going to postpone any finishing of tapering or raising rates.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US budget reconciliation package will include the changes needed to bring the US into compliance with the OECD 15% global minimum tax.
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will run higher than the Federal Reserve's own projections (Sept 2021 median: 2.2% PCE inflation for 2022).
“I think inflation will remain higher than the Federal Reserve expects and we're going to have to do something about it.”Economy
Right, but late ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,000 by the end of 2022.
“But 5,000 is actually a fairly conservative outlook. It's the end of next year,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not need to tighten monetary policy to cool post-pandemic inflation.
“For what it's worth, I don't think tapping the brakes will actually be required.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
High annual US inflation rates will persist for several more months, through the end of 2021.
“I expect it to last, however, for several more months and to see high annual rates of inflation through the end of this year”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumer prices will rise about 20% cumulatively over the three to four years from May 2021 (by May 2025).
“I believe in the next three, four years cumulatively we're going to have 20% inflation”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall permanently to zero.
“While a temporary move up to $100K is possible, a permanent move down to zero is inevitable”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
With the American Rescue Plan passed, the US will return to full employment by the end of 2022.
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").
“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
A fall 2020 Covid spike will cause at most a small pause in stocks, with no serious correction and no return toward the March 2020 lows.
“It's not going to be a serious correction, not anywhere again down near those March lows. A little pause if we get that wave, but I don't think it's going to really stop the longer-term momentum upward”MarketsHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US unemployment, above 10 percent in mid-2020, will stay high for a long time (no large improvement through at least 2020).
“As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won't get much better for a long time.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will set a new record high before the end of 2020, barring a serious second Covid wave.
“In fact, given no serious second wave, which could mean just effective therapeutics without even a universal vaccine, my feeling is it's even a likelihood that we will reach”MarketsHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will fall sharply in Q2 2020 and then surge ("skyrocket") in Q3 2020.
“what's going to happen, in all likelihood, is that you're going to see the second quarter drop a lot, and the third quarter skyrocket”EconomyHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate for May 2020 (reported in June 2020) will exceed 20%.
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
Pending ●●●●●
After a weak U-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 recession, the world economy will fall into an L-shaped "Greater Depression" before the end of the 2020s.
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will be very high in the second half of 2020 (Q3 and Q4), above pre-pandemic quarterly growth rates.
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
US economic and unemployment data for March-May 2020 will be terrible, followed by a strong rebound in consumer spending once people feel safe going out again.
“We're going to have some terrible, terrible economic numbers, unemployment numbers right up ahead here for March and April and May … And I think once we perceive that it's safe to go out again I think you're going to see a tremendous amount of spending in the economy”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
After the COVID crash, financial markets will recover well before the real economy does.
“The financial markets are going to lead the real economy.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The world economy will fall into recession in 2020 because of the coronavirus.
“We are going into a global recession.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut rates in response to the coronavirus, and financial markets will still start to freeze up.
“markets will start freezing up even if the Fed cuts rates, which I think it will”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US (CPI inflation then about 2%) will be hit by a surge of high inflation.
“We are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $100,000.
“Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $50,000.
“Bitcoin will never hit 50k.”Crypto