A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“Now the most interesting question is whether October or December brings the next increase. My expectation is December.”BankingEconomy
“Combined with continued credit expansion, a strong labor market and higher market interest rates, I believe the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this week’s meeting.”BankingEconomy
“So will Trump's surrender to Iran rescue him and his party from a blue wave in November? It's very unlikely.”ElectionsPolitics
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,”Markets
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”EconomyMarkets
“As the Fed moves toward easing—something I still expect to total roughly 200 basis points from the peak rates over 5%—the relief will be felt most acutely by small and mid-sized firms that borrow short.”BankingEconomy
“Regardless of a potential correction, the price should break above $100 next year. This time it is different.”Markets
“As a result, the inflation outlook looks quite good for 2026. We would be between 2% and 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed target.”Economy
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”EconomyMarkets
“right now, it's looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year”EconomyPolitics
“We expect that S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share will increase from $268 this year to $310 next year,”Markets
“In the baseline case, the US will suffer a growth recession (meaning below-trend GDP growth) for a few months, followed by a recovery and a gradual decline in the inflation rate toward the US Federal Reserve's 2% target.”Economy
“We are still targeting 7700 by the end of next year.”Markets
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
“This is why we're sticking with our S&P 500 targets — 6,600 by the end of 2025 and 7,700 by the end of next year.”Markets
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”EconomyPolitics
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
“To be sure, US inflation will surge above 4% this year.”EconomyMarkets
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
“I don't think that you're going to see a big effect on the consumer in the U.S. because I do think that the reason why we have a persistent, long-run trade deficit these people have very inelastic supply.”EconomyPoliticsGeopolitics
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
“By the second half of this year, we expect the bull market to resume.”Markets
“We are targeting (not promising) a gold price of $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of 2026.”Markets
“The "Department of Government Efficiency," an external advisory committee led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy (two major Trump campaign donors), will come nowhere close to cutting the federal budget by $2 trillion, as originally promised.”PoliticsEconomy
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
“We remain bullish, targeting 7000 on the S&P 500 by the end of next year.”Markets
“We are the head of the pack on the outlook for S&P 500 operating earnings per share next year at $285, up 18.8% y/y”Markets
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets