Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,060/oz) will eventually reach $5,000 an ounce.
“It's still going to go there”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2016 the Federal Reserve will reverse its December 2015 rate hike, cut rates below zero and launch a fourth, larger round of quantitative easing.
“They're going quickly have to reverse course next year. They are going to bring rates into negative territory ... and they're going to do QE 4 and it's going to be bigger than ever.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve (rates then near zero) will never be able to raise interest rates back up.
“They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Herbalife will be gone (its stock collapsing to zero) by mid-January 2016.
“I’d be surprised if it’s not gone within a year”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold will rise through $2,000 an ounce very quickly (read here as within about a year, by end of 2015).
“it'll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn't buy gold at $1,700.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The easy-money startup funding market will turn, and many high-burn-rate startups will fail as a result.
“When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By about March 2016, Bitcoin will be mainstream and libertarians will have turned against it.
“My prediction is that libertarians are going to turn on Bitcoin. That’ll be in about two years, when it’ll be mainstream”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2034, the news industry will be 10 to 100 times larger than it was in 2014.
“I am more bullish about the future of the news industry over the next 20 years than almost anyone I know. You are going to see it grow 10X to 100X from where it is today.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless a much better rival displaces it quickly, Bitcoin's network effect will make it the dominant cryptocurrency.
“If something is to displace Bitcoin now, it will have to have sizable improvements and it will have to happen quickly. Otherwise, this network effect will carry Bitcoin to dominance.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Johnson & Johnson will sell or spin off its diagnostics business during 2014.
“I bet CEO Alex Gorsky will shed JNJ's slow-growing diagnostics business this year and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon be effectively shut down or marginalized, suffering the same fate as online gambling.
“#Bitcoin days are numbered. It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
US newspaper industry circulation, advertising and profits will keep declining over the following decade.
“the circulation, advertising and profits of the newspaper industry overall are certain to decline. That prediction still holds.”EconomyTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US Dollar Index (then about 80) will fall by at least half, to 40 or below.
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,700/oz) will make a big move up toward $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2014.
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
Research in Motion (BlackBerry) will become worthless as app-phone makers take over the smartphone market.
“RIM [Blackberry maker Research in Motion] is going to zero,”TechnologyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Within 10-15 years of 2012 (by 2027), a consumer AI assistant will give medical opinions far more accurate than those of the average physician.
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”HealthAI
Accurate ●●●●●
By August 2021, many more industries will be disrupted by software, mostly by new Silicon Valley companies.
“Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.”TechnologyEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
US oil and gas reserves and output will prove unexpectedly resilient over the following decade thanks to fracking and horizontal drilling.
“Its substantial oil and gas reserves look likely to prove unexpectedly resilient, buoyed by improving skills at fracking and lateral drilling.”Energy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Over roughly the next decade from 2011, raw material prices will keep rising and resource shortages will be common.
“we now live in a different, more constrained, world in which prices of raw materials will rise and shortages will be common.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
A US housing recovery will begin by about early 2012.
“A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US residential housing problems will largely be over by about early 2011.
“within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar will collapse, losing 50-70% of its value, before the end of Barack Obama's first term (January 2013).
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,100/oz) will reach about $5,000 an ounce within the next several years (read as by end of 2016).
“I think $5,000 is a reasonable expectation of where gold is headed over the course of the next several years, based on monetary and fiscal policy that is in place.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will not set a new inflation-adjusted high (above its 2000 peak) for decades after 2009.
“To be honest, I believe that most of you readers are likely to be grandparents before you see a new inflation-adjusted high on the S&P.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will rally to about 1000-1100 before the end of 2009.
“My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Global stimulus will revive the economies of large countries including the US and China by late 2009 or early 2010.
“The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80 percent probable to me, anyway.)”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Developed-world real GDP growth will average only about 2% (perhaps 2.25%) a year over the seven years to 2016.
“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2 percent real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25 percent) down from the 3.5 percent to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Heinlein-style libertarian settlement of outer space will not happen before 2050.
“The libertarian future of classic science fiction, à la Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century.”SpacePolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will be in shambles throughout 2009.
“We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond”Economy