A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”AI
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.”AIEconomy
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
“But it's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in two years,”AI
“I think next year we're going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen.”AI
“But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change.”AITechnologyEconomy
“And I think in another year we'll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don't know, but might even be less than that.”AI
“One technology that I expect will turbocharge info finance in the next decade is AI (whether LLMs or some future technology).”CryptoAIMarkets
“I think by 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people”TechnologyAI
“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”HealthAI
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”HealthAI
“My own opinion is that we're not going to hit the climate goals anyway because we are not organized to do it”ClimateEnergy
“AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf.”AITechnology
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”AI
“I estimate that over the next 25 years, possibly 80% of 80% of all jobs, can be done by an AI”AIEconomy
“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close.”Elections
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology
“While expert opinions may vary, my view is that ASI will be ten thousand times more intelligent than humans and realized in about ten years.”AI
“Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.”AI
“I'm almost certain, within the next 10-15 years, we can have free doctors for everybody on the planet, or near-free, with the cost of computing”HealthAI
“I think it will change the world tremendously in terms of people’s productivity and there will be a remapping of jobs, I think, and wage structure from some industries to others”AIEconomy
“In the limit (5-10 years into the future), I expect that all rollups will be ZK rollups”Crypto
“I don't know. Over... at least a million.”Crypto
“In the next year, you're going to see very large context windows, agents, and text to action. When they are delivered at scale, it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet”AITechnology
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”AI
“And so I would say that within the next five to ten years, somewhere in between, it's largely the case.”TechnologyAI
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.”AI
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI
“If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years' time, we'll do well on every single one”AI