A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“It will take a little time, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t eventually shift to a popular vote for President over the next decade or so.”PoliticsElections
“I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment”Politics
“We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.”EconomyElections
“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”MarketsElections
“Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.”Elections
“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory”Elections
“The second is both simpler and more complicated: joining NAFTA. … The Brits will ultimately succeed at both.”GeopoliticsEconomy
“Expect the Brits to be the only country in the world with a meaningful trade deal with India”GeopoliticsEconomy
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy
“It's still going to go there”Markets
“For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.”Elections
“And so the Russians are coming. Coming for Crimea, and Donetsk and Torez and Luhansk and Slovyansk and Odessa.”Geopolitics
“They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up.”EconomyMarkets
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
“I’d be surprised if it’s not gone within a year”Markets
“it'll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn't buy gold at $1,700.”Markets
“They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process”Geopolitics
“I bet CEO Alex Gorsky will shed JNJ's slow-growing diagnostics business this year and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise”Markets
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.”Politics
“Egypt will now be led by or highly influenced by Islamic parties”Politics