A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”Economy
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
“It's still going to get to 3,100 [this year], it's just going to take a little while longer,”Markets
“maybe like one percent or two percent or something like that”Economy
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”Economy
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
“I think now, you know, we're looking at GDP growth of about 3.5% this year and carrying on to something a little bit north of three next year.”Economy
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
“we project that our policies will create about a 3 percent growth rate going forward over the next 10 years.”EconomyPolitics
“If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid.”Markets
“We have been bubbling since 2009 – I am projecting that the Dow will go down to 5,000 – 5,500 in the next two to three years”Markets
“My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, and with the ongoing strengthening of labor markets, I expect inflation to move higher next year.”Economy
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
“I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be”BankingEconomy
“We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.”EconomyElections
“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”MarketsElections
“I expect the Bank of England to cut rates and I expect the ECB to do more QE, as will the Bank of Japan.”EconomyBanking
“no one will reach critical mass to challenge London's overall European dominance.”BankingGeopolitics
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”EconomyElections
“We're going to have a lower level of growth in six months from now ... about 1.5 percent.”Economy
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy
“It's still going to go there”Markets
“They're going quickly have to reverse course next year. They are going to bring rates into negative territory ... and they're going to do QE 4 and it's going to be bigger than ever.”EconomyMarkets
“I definitely think we will see Dow 20,000 in 2016”Markets