A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“It's the most honest market we have in the country, and it's telling us that this decrepit … regime is just about to blow up.”EconomyCryptoBanking
“By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal”HealthEconomy
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”AIHealth
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
“for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022.”HealthEconomy
“I bet there’ll be some vaccines that will get out to lots of patients without the full regulatory review somewhere in the world.”Health
“But I think that it's possible that over the next five to 10 years — maybe closer to 10 than five, but somewhere in that range — I think we could get to about half of the company working remotely permanently.”EconomyTechnology
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”Health
“at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.”Technology
“I think the president will get reelected”Elections
“I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet”GeopoliticsTechnology
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto
“By making these changes, I expect the time people spend on Facebook and some measures of engagement will go down.”Technology
“Year after that, robot taxis. The year after that, self-driving cars.”Self-drivingAI
“By 2030, they will dominate the industries.”AIGeopolitics
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AIGeopolitics
“By 2025, they will be better than us.”AIGeopolitics
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”Health
“I predict 30 years from now, the number of smart robots, the smart robot population on this earth will be 10 billion.”TechnologyAI
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
“I totally believe this concept. In the next 30 years this will become a reality.”AI
“respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place in the years ahead.”Health
“I wouldn't be surprised if you fast-forward five years and most of the content that people see on Facebook and are sharing on a day-to-day basis is video.”Technology
“Within the next 15 years—and especially if young people get involved—I expect the world will discover a clean energy breakthrough that will save our planet and power our world.”EnergyClimate
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”Self-drivingAI
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”Health
“In 1990, one in 10 children in the world died before age 5. Today, it's one in 20. By 2030, that number will be one in 40.”Health