Inaccurate ●●●●●
US core PCE inflation will stay around 4% or higher at the end of 2023 rather than falling to 2-3%.
“U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $17,000) will not rise meaningfully above $17,000 and will fall to new lows in the ongoing bear market (read as through end of 2023).
“Don't make the mistake of thinking that #Bitcoin is forming a floor at $17K. It's forming the next ceiling.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Advanced economies will suffer a hard landing (a deep, protracted recession) together with a severe financial crisis (inferred window about two years, to end-2024).
“That means there will be a hard landing - a deep, protracted recession - on top of a severe financial crisis.”EconomyMarketsBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points (not 75) at its December 2022 meeting.
“I do expect the 50 basis points”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2023 the US will avoid an economy-wide recession (seeing only a rolling, sector-by-sector one), and the stock bear market will not continue.
“We're more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will rise toward 6% in a recession during 2023.
“The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The UK will fall into recession following the September 2022 mini-budget turmoil.
“Yes, [a recession] is now inevitable. The question is depth and duration”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The British pound will fall below parity with both the US dollar and the euro (inferred window: within about a year, by September 2023).
“My guess is that [the] pound will find its way below parity with both the dollar and euro”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will enter a severe, long recession starting around end-2022 and lasting through 2023.
“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will average around 4.5%-5% over the long term (the next 10 years from 2022), well above the 2.6% markets priced.
“My guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5 percent to 5 percent long term, barring shocks”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US interest rates will rise from about 2.5% to the higher end of a 4.5%-6% range in this tightening cycle.
“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range)”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will go through a significant economic contraction (recession) as a result of the 2022 rate rises, after some delay.
“My guesstimate that a significant economic contraction will be required, but it will take a while to happen because cash levels and wealth levels are now relatively high”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A rise in US rates to about 4.5% will knock roughly 20% off US equity prices from September 2022 levels.
“I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US annual CPI inflation will print above the June 2022 peak of 9.1% (read as within about two years, by August 2024).
“There's no doubt in my mind that we will get a higher number than 9.1 percent”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will not be contained unless unemployment stays above 5% for about five years (to mid-2027), or a comparable amount of slack occurs (e.g. two years at 7.5% or one year at 10%).
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession by June 2024.
“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise rates by at least 50 basis points at its June 14-15, 2022 meeting.
“We should look the Fed to increase by at least 50 basis points this coming week.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US CPI inflation (8.6% in May 2022) will rise further rather than having peaked.
“I fear that it's still going to get worse, we may well get to 9% at this rate.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will soon fall into a recession, with no Fed soft landing (inferred window about two years, to May 2024).
“We're about to go into a recession already… There's no soft landing here.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The S&P 500's January 2022 high was the top, and stocks will stay in a bear market below it until 2024.
“I think the market has already topped, January 4th for the S&P 500, and we're heading down,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
If bitcoin (then about $34,500) breaks decisively below $30,000, it will crash below $10,000 (read as within about two years, by May 2024).
“If #Bitcoin breaks decisively below $30K it seems highly likely that it will crash below $10K.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate (then 0.25-0.5%) will rise to the 4-5% range by about March 2024.
“My sense of this is that given the likely paths of inflation, we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will come down without an early-1980s-style deep recession.
“So it probably won't be necessary to put the economy through an '80s-style wringer to get inflation down.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
From 2022 to 2025, US unemployment and inflation will both average above 5 percent (stagflation).
“The Fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Russia's economy will contract by about a third as a result of the Ukraine war and sanctions.
“its economy is set also to contract by about a third”EconomyGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
Europe will slide into recession following the Ukraine war while the US economy outperforms it.
“Overall, the US is likely to outperform Europe, which is likely to slide into recession”EconomyGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
Ukraine's real GDP will fall by well over a third (more than ~33%) in 2022.
“Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices will spike to well above $100 a barrel in the short term (inferred window: 2022).
“Oil and natural gas prices will spike further – to well above $100 per barrel – as will many other commodity prices”EnergyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Housing (shelter) costs alone will add more than 2 percentage points to US core CPI inflation in 2022.
“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US underlying (core) inflation at the end of 2022 will be far below 1980 levels (around 10 percent or more).
“For one thing, despite high headline numbers lately, underlying inflation by the end of 2022 isn't likely to be anywhere near 1980 levels.”Economy