Accurate ●●●●●
Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall permanently to zero.
“While a temporary move up to $100K is possible, a permanent move down to zero is inevitable”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Rollups (rather than base-layer execution sharding) will become Ethereum's main scaling strategy in the near and mid term.
“the Ethereum ecosystem is likely to be all-in on rollups (plus some plasma and channels) as a scaling strategy for the near and mid-term future.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Ethereum 2.0 Phase 0 (the proof-of-stake beacon chain) will go live by the end of 2020.
“This will release the proof-of-stake network, which will come online this year.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $100,000.
“Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $50,000.
“Bitcoin will never hit 50k.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall to zero (inferred window about 10 years, to mid-2029).
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
XRP and the other non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will all go bust (become essentially worthless).
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will become the world's and the internet's single currency within about ten years (by 2028).
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will eventually collapse ("blow up"), possibly after first reaching $20,000.
“Don't ask me to short it. It could be at $20,000 before this happens, but it will eventually blow up.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Governments will not tolerate bitcoin or any other non-government-controlled currency for long; such currencies will be shut down.
“There will be no real-time, non-controlled currency in the world. There is no government that is going to put up with it for long.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless a much better rival displaces it quickly, Bitcoin's network effect will make it the dominant cryptocurrency.
“If something is to displace Bitcoin now, it will have to have sizable improvements and it will have to happen quickly. Otherwise, this network effect will carry Bitcoin to dominance.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon be effectively shut down or marginalized, suffering the same fate as online gambling.
“#Bitcoin days are numbered. It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling.”Crypto