Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,700/oz) will make a big move up toward $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2014.
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2013 a "global perfect storm" (euro debt crisis, US fiscal tightening, China hard landing, emerging-market slowdown) will hit the world economy.
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro within months ("very possibly" in June 2012), as the first step of the euro's endgame.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Communist Party of China will fall from power during 2012.
“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.”Politics
Partly right ●●●●●
Egypt's Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood will end up in a major fight with each other over religious authority.
“And I think we're going to see eventually the mother of all church fights between the Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood over who, you know, has basically the real monopoly of religion.”PoliticsGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Egypt's post-Mubarak government will be led by or highly influenced by Islamist parties.
“Egypt will now be led by or highly influenced by Islamic parties”Politics
Accurate ●●●●●
Barack Obama will win re-election in the 2012 US presidential election.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don't see how Obama can lose,”Elections
Unresolvable ●●●●●
China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The United States will come to import its next-generation clean technology from China.
“To my fellow Americans, I say watch out: Not only will we be importing toys but also the next generation of clean technology as well”EnergyTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail (inferred window about four years, to end-2014).
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
China's continued rise will lead to intense US-China security competition (within about two decades of 2010).
“Now, Australians should be worried about China's rise, because it is likely to lead to intense security competition between China and the US, with considerable potential for war.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Through 2020, the Israel lobby will keep Israel shielded from meaningful US pressure.
“Neither the Palestinians nor any of Israel's immediate neighbors are powerful enough to deter it, and the lobby will remain influential enough over the next decade to protect Israel from meaningful U.S. pressure.”GeopoliticsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar will collapse, losing 50-70% of its value, before the end of Barack Obama's first term (January 2013).
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,100/oz) will reach about $5,000 an ounce within the next several years (read as by end of 2016).
“I think $5,000 is a reasonable expectation of where gold is headed over the course of the next several years, based on monetary and fiscal policy that is in place.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Rather than withdraw, Obama will increase the US military commitment to Afghanistan.
“Of course, President Obama will never do such a thing. Instead, he will increase the American commitment to Afghanistan, just as Lyndon Johnson did in Vietnam in 1965.”GeopoliticsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Demand for clean energy and energy efficiency will explode, making clean energy the next great global industry.
“In that kind of a world, demand for clean energy, clean fuel, energy efficiency is clearly going to explode. It's clearly going to be the next great global industry.”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 index will fall to 600 or below in 2009.
“My main scenario is that it's highly likely it goes to 600 or below,”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The North polar ice cap may well be completely gone (ice-free) by the end of 2013.
“the entire North polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.”Climate
Partly right ●●●●●
The U.S. housing market will bottom and turn around on June 30, 2009.
“In fact, I’ll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround. It will begin on June 30, 2009.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will not fall back to their July 15, 2008 lows (said July 30, 2008).
“The market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices (then near record highs in July 2008) will keep rising over the next couple of years unless the world shifts away from oil.
“the demand for oil is growing so rapidly that the price is almost certainly going to continue to go up until we shift away from a dependence on oil and coal and towards renewable energy.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Bear Stearns rescue in March 2008 marked the bottom of the U.S. stock market's decline, with no lower lows to follow.
“That $30 billion from the Fed will turn out to be a small price to pay for a bottom in the stock market after the beating we’ve taken over the past eight months.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bear Stearns was not in trouble and would not fail (said March 11, 2008).
“Bear Stearns is not in trouble. It's more likely to be taken over.”BankingMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Goldman Sachs stock will finish 2008 at $300 a share.
“Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Google stock will reach $1,000 a share during 2008.
“Google stock reaches $1,000.”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will rally in the last trading sessions of 2007 (after Dec 21, 2007) through year-end.
“I think we're in for a real ramp up”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Democratic nominee will win the 2008 US presidential election.
“the Democrats will recapture the White House next fall”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking