Partly right ●●●●●
By the end of 2024, Meta AI will be the most used AI assistant in the world.
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
During 2025, Meta's Llama models will become the most advanced AI models in the industry.
“Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla will have genuinely useful Optimus humanoid robots in low-volume production, working inside Tesla, during 2025.
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist by around the end of 2025.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
LLM hallucination rates will not be brought down to human-expert levels by the end of 2024.
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
The vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open-source AI platforms.
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Human-level AI systems (with hierarchical planning and brain-like flexibility) will not exist before March 2034.
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2029, AI will do well on every test humans can devise (Huang's test-based definition of AGI).
“If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years' time, we'll do well on every single one”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The global installed base of data centers will double from about $1 trillion to about $2 trillion by early 2029.
“Over the course of the next four or five years, we’ll have $2 trillion worth of data centers that will be powering software around the world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By November 2028, AI agents will let people do tasks by telling their device in everyday language, so they no longer need separate apps for different tasks.
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The singularity / artificial general intelligence surpassing human intelligence in almost all areas will arrive by the end of 2033.
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Because of AI, the next generation will typically work a three-and-a-half-day week.
“And literally they'll probably be working three-and-a-half days a week.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Thanks to AI and other technology, today's children will typically live to 100 without getting cancer.
“Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology.”HealthAI
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Every child will have access to a personal AI tutor.
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause economy-wide productivity growth to accelerate dramatically.
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will become smarter than humans within 5 to 20 years of May 2023, i.e. by May 2043.
“I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Global robotaxi services will generate $8-10 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
“We think that the robotaxi opportunity, globally, will deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030”Self-drivingAIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems will become as capable a tutor as the best human tutor.
“AIs will get to that ability, to be as good a tutor as any human ever could.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI chatbots like ChatGPT will not have large macroeconomic effects (e.g. on productivity) until the 2030s.
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4 will still commonly produce fluent hallucinations that are easy to induce.
“Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4 will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
No text-trained language model, however powerful, will ever be able to say that an object on a table moves when the table is pushed.
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031, AI-driven machines will be doing assembly-line work (and possibly serving as companions).
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Within five years of March 2021, AI programs will be reading legal documents and giving medical advice.
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”AIHealth
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis, in at least some jurisdictions, in 2020.
“I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robotaxis next year”Self-drivingAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature complete in 2019: able to pick you up in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
Universal basic income will be in place across the developed world by the early 2030s (read as end of 2033) and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.
“In the early 2030s, we'll have universal basic income in the developed world, and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.”EconomyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robotaxis will arrive in 2019 and self-driving cars will be on the road (for consumers) in 2020.
“Year after that, robot taxis. The year after that, self-driving cars.”Self-drivingAI