Pending ●●●●●
China will dominate the AI industries by 2030.
“By 2030, they will dominate the industries.”AIGeopolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China will be better than the United States at artificial intelligence by 2025.
“By 2025, they will be better than us.”AIGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
China will have caught up with the United States in artificial intelligence by 2020.
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AIGeopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045 humans will merge with AI and multiply their effective intelligence a billionfold (the Singularity).
“I have set the date 2045 for the 'Singularity' which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
An AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.
“2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2047, a single chip embedded in an everyday item like a shoe will be more intelligent than the human brain.
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The technological singularity (machine superintelligence surpassing human intelligence) will become a reality by the end of 2047.
“I totally believe this concept. In the next 30 years this will become a reality.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Deep learning will outperform human radiologists by the end of 2021.
“It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”HealthAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
A Tesla will complete a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York, with no human touch, by the end of 2017.
“all the way from LA to New York … by the end of next year”Self-drivingAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla cars will have complete autonomy (drive themselves) by around the end of 2017.
“We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”Self-drivingAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
Self-driving cars will be available within three to four years of October 2015 (by October 2019).
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
Within 10-15 years of 2012 (by 2027), a consumer AI assistant will give medical opinions far more accurate than those of the average physician.
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”HealthAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2019 a $1,000 PC will perform about 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops), the estimated raw capacity of the human brain.
“But 200 calculations a second times a hundred trillion-fold parallelism is about 20 million billion calculations per second, or about 20 billion mips. And we'll achieve that in a thousand dollar PC or equivalent by around 2019.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2024 scientists will have fully decoded (scanned and reverse-engineered) the human brain.
“Certainly within the next 20 to 25 years we will succeed in fully decoding the human brain just as we're now nearing completion of the decoding of the human genome.”TechnologyAIHealth
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 real-time speech-translating phone calls will be in common use for many language pairs.
“Translating telephone technology (where you speak in English and your Japanese friend hears you in Japanese, and vice versa) is commonly used for many language pairs.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 most text will be created by speaking (speech recognition) rather than typing.
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”TechnologyAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
By the early 2000s a computer driver installed in cars will drive and navigate on its own from one place to another, communicating with other cars and road sensors.
“The cybernetic chauffeur, installed in one's car, communicates with other cars and sensors on the roads. In this way it successfully drives and navigates from one point to another.”Self-drivingAI
Accurate ●●●●●
By 2000 a computer will be the world's strongest chess player, able to beat the human world champion.
“The world chess champion is a computer.”AI