Pending ●●●●●
The Han Chinese ethnicity will effectively vanish (demographically die out) by 2100.
“The actual Han ethnicity is going to vanish from the world by the end of this century.”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Unresolvable ●●●●●
In 2025, the first AI agents will "join the workforce" and materially change companies' output.
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth in 2025 will be lower than in 2024.
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, less than 10% (probably less than 5%) of the workforce will have been replaced by AI.
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will get back down to the Fed's 2% goal within one to two years, i.e. by end of 2026.
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“The good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Department of Government Efficiency will cut at least $2 trillion from the roughly $6.5 trillion federal budget before its July 4, 2026 end date.
“I think we can do at least $2 trillion.”PoliticsEconomy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By 2049, AI will be capable of doing 80% of the work in 80% of all jobs.
“I estimate that over the next 25 years, possibly 80% of 80% of all jobs, can be done by an AI”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US gasoline prices will fall below $2 a gallon.
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US grocery and consumer prices will fall soon after Trump takes office in January 2025 (by the end of 2025).
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will move back down over the course of 2024 from its early-2024 level (about 2.7% headline, 2.8% core PCE).
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US interest rates (Fed cuts) will come sooner and faster in 2024 than markets expected in January 2024 (about six cuts starting in March).
“We think interest rates are going to fall sooner and faster than most expect—and that should be supportive of valuations.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth in 2024 will be only slightly above 4%, helped by a moderate stimulus.
“China will most likely implement a moderate stimulus that is sufficient to get growth slightly above 4% in 2024.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US CPI inflation rate will turn negative at some point in 2024.
“The Federal Reserve has overdone it, we’re going to see a lot more deflation going forward”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Germany will cease to be an industrial power by October 2038 at the latest (within 10 to 15 years of October 2023).
“we're looking at the end of Germany as an industrial power within 10, probably no more than 15 years”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Because of AI, the next generation will typically work a three-and-a-half-day week.
“And literally they'll probably be working three-and-a-half days a week.”AIEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more after its July 2023 hike, within the next few months (by end of January 2024).
“My best guess would be that we’re going to need more interest-rate increasing”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth for the first half of 2023 will come in below the 6.2% officially forecast.
“Moreover, the economy will not grow 6.2 percent in the first half, as official sources are predicting.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
From late June 2023, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England will each raise interest rates further before pausing (inferred window: rest of 2023).
“The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and most other major central banks will have to raise rates even more before they can pause.”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause economy-wide productivity growth to accelerate dramatically.
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The White House and congressional Republicans will reach a budget/debt-limit agreement and the US will not default on its debt in 2023.
“I'm confident that we'll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Absent congressional action, the US Treasury will run out of cash and extraordinary measures by early June 2023, possibly as early as June 1.
“our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
After JPMorgan's First Republic takeover, no further large US bank failures will follow from the 2023 regional-bank crisis, at most another smaller one.
“There may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all,”BankingEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI chatbots like ChatGPT will not have large macroeconomic effects (e.g. on productivity) until the 2030s.
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”AIEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
The March 2023 bank failures (SVB, Signature) will tighten credit conditions for US households and businesses in 2023, weighing on demand, the labor market and inflation.
“the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby weigh on demand, on the labor market, and on inflation.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation (CPI then about 6%) will rise much higher because of the March 2023 bank bailouts (read as within about a year).
“Rate hikes don't matter. Inflation is headed much higher, thanks to bank bailouts”EconomyBanking