Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
AI will be an election issue in the November 2026 US midterm elections, for the first time.
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariffs will cause only a one-time rise in the price level, not a persistent increase in inflation.
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”EconomyPolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
Because of Trump's tariffs, US year-over-year inflation will rise to at least 3% in 2025.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
In 2025 the US will have little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment and persistent inflation.
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariffs will raise US inflation and slow US economic growth during 2025.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Department of Government Efficiency will cut at least $2 trillion from the roughly $6.5 trillion federal budget before its July 4, 2026 end date.
“I think we can do at least $2 trillion.”PoliticsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will lose the November 2024 U.S. presidential election (Kamala Harris will win).
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will beat Trump and DeSantis and win the 2024 US presidential election.
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The White House and congressional Republicans will reach a budget/debt-limit agreement and the US will not default on its debt in 2023.
“I'm confident that we'll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Absent congressional action, the US Treasury will run out of cash and extraordinary measures by early June 2023, possibly as early as June 1.
“our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.”PoliticsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US budget reconciliation package will include the changes needed to bring the US into compliance with the OECD 15% global minimum tax.
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
With the American Rescue Plan passed, the US will return to full employment by the end of 2022.
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless Trump wins, the November 2020 US presidential election will be disputed (Trump will contest the result).
“We are going to have a disputed election, almost certainly”ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will sign a full health care plan by about August 2, 2020 (within two weeks of July 19, 2020).
“We're signing a health care plan within two weeks”HealthPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Over 400 miles of border wall will be built on the US-Mexico border by the end of 2020.
“We're going to have over 400 miles of wall built, much of it is already started, by the end of next year”Politics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cutting the US corporate tax rate (as in the 2017 tax bill) will raise median household wages/income by about $4,000 a year relative to baseline within a relatively short time.
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will meet its Paris Agreement commitment (26-28% below 2005 emissions by 2025) despite Trump's withdrawal.
“The country as a whole is going to meet the commitments of the Paris agreement, regardless of what Donald Trump says or does.”ClimatePolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The US will switch to electing the President by national popular vote by around the end of 2026.
“It will take a little time, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t eventually shift to a popular vote for President over the next decade or so.”PoliticsElections
Accurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will be impeached during his (first) presidential term.
“I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment”Politics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom will fall into at least a mild recession (inferred window: within about two years, by mid-2018).
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Leaving the EU will make the UK permanently poorer than it would otherwise have been, through lower trade and productivity.
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The Brexit vote will not cause a near-term recession in Britain or the world.
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Mexico will pay for the construction of a wall on the US-Mexico border.
“Mexico, as sure as you're standing here, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.”PoliticsGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro, very possibly by the end of June 2012.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Communist Party of China will fall from power during 2012.
“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.”Politics
Accurate ●●●●●
Egypt's post-Mubarak government will be led by or highly influenced by Islamist parties.
“Egypt will now be led by or highly influenced by Islamic parties”Politics